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Home / Tennis / Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Picks & Live Stream – Alcaraz Holds the Edge in a Blockbuster Clash at the US Open

Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Picks & Live Stream – Alcaraz Holds the Edge in a Blockbuster Clash at the US Open

Quick Read

  • Alcaraz has won all 3 previous matches vs Shelton
  • Alcaraz is in strong form after injury break
  • Prediction: Alcaraz to win, likely covering -1.5 sets
James Smith
Written by James Smith
Updated: Sep 8, 2026
Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz returns against Tommy Paul in Flushing, NYSource: Getty

Our TipStrong confidence
Stake.com

Handicap Sets

Alcaraz -1.5

Odds

7/12

Place Bet
Stake.com

Total Sets

Over 3.5

Odds

8/13

Place Bet
Stake.com

Tiebreak to be played

Yes

Odds

5/12

Place Bet
Carlos Alcaraz appears to have firmly found his rhythm, producing back-to-back straight-set wins over Yibing Wu and Tommy Paul. Those were surprisingly high-level performances for a player returning to action after a five-month injury break, and the Spaniard now looks much closer to his best level. 

With that kind of form, Alcaraz should be well placed to negotiate Ben Shelton as well. He also holds a dominant 3-0 head-to-head record against the American, giving him another psychological advantage heading into this matchup.

Alcaraz Looks To Maintain His Quarterfinal Excellence

  • Shelton is 2–3 in quarterfinal matches at Grand Slam tournaments. 
  • He has a 1–6 record against Top 5 players at Grand Slam tournaments. 
  • Alcaraz has a 3–1 record in quarterfinal matches at Grand Slam tournaments. 
  • He has a 13–0 record against American opponents at Grand Slam tournaments.

HTH - Carlos Alcaraz leads 3-0

YearTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025French OpenR16ClayCarlos Alcaraz7-6(8), 6-3, 4-6, 6-4
2024Laver CupIndoorCarlos Alcaraz6-4, 6-4
2023Toronto2RHardCarlos Alcaraz6-3, 7-6(3)

Shelton Sets Up Blockbuster Quarterfinal Against Alcaraz

Ben Shelton defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets to secure his place in the quarterfinals at the US Open, winning 6-2, 6-3, 6-4. He did not face a single break point during the match and converted four of the six break points he created. 

With this run, Shelton has become the fourth American left-hander to reach multiple US Open quarterfinals after Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe and Roscoe Tanner. 

Except for his opening-round loss in Cincinnati, Shelton has posted solid results throughout the North American swing, defending his title at the Canadian Open and reaching the quarterfinals in Washington. He has continued to build that momentum this week. 

He will be pleased with his performance after suffering early exits at his previous two Grand Slams this year. Shelton has played nine quarterfinals in 2026 and won four of them, converting all four victories into titles, including his recent triumph in Montreal.

CategoryDetails
CountryUnited States
AgeBorn 9 October 2002
PlaysLeft-handed
World RankingNo. 9
Career HighNo. 5 (10 November 2025)
Elo RankingNo. 7
Tour-Level Titles7

Alcaraz Keeps His Grand Slam Consistency Going

Carlos Alcaraz moved into the quarterfinals after defeating Tommy Paul in straight sets, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4. He won 75% of his first-serve points and lost his serve just once during the match. 

This is Alcaraz's 15th quarterfinal appearance in 21 Grand Slam main-draw appearances, highlighting his impressive consistency at this stage of his career. 

The Spaniard made a strong start to the year before a wrist injury halted his progress. Overall, he has played only six events this year and, apart from a couple of early exits, reached at least the semifinals in his other four tournaments, including titles at the Australian Open and Doha. 

The World No. 2 has already played four US Open quarterfinals. Except for his retirement loss at this stage during his debut in 2021, he has won his next three quarterfinal matches here.

CategoryDetails
CountrySpain
AgeBorn 5 May 2003
PlaysRight-handed
World RankingNo. 3
Career HighNo. 1 (12 September 2022)
Elo RankingNo. 2
Tour-Level Titles27

Verdict

Our Verdict
Shelton has enough firepower to keep a couple of sets competitive and potentially force a tiebreak, but Alcaraz's current level should ultimately prove too strong. The Spaniard looks well placed to get the job done while maintaining his impressive momentum. 

Backing Carlos Alcaraz to cover the -1.5 sets handicap, a tiebreaker to be played in the match and over 3.5 sets in the match.

Stake.com
Top Pick

Alcaraz -1.5

at Stake.com

Stake.com

Over 3.5

at Stake.com

Stake.com

Yes

at Stake.com

James Smith
James Smith

After playing footy from the age of 8, James always knew that this is a career path that he wanted to follow. Featuring as one of our sports and betting writers, James plays an integral part of the day-to-day running of the site.

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