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Home / Tennis / Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen Betting Picks & Live Stream – Michelsen's Momentum Could Shock Tiafoe at the US Open

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen Betting Picks & Live Stream – Michelsen's Momentum Could Shock Tiafoe at the US Open

Quick Read

  • Michelsen reaches US Open quarterfinals without dropping a set
  • Tiafoe defeats Medvedev, earns fifth consecutive Top 10 win
  • Prediction favors Michelsen as a valuable underdog pick
James Smith
Written by James Smith
Updated: Sep 8, 2026
Alex Michelsen

Alex Michelsen returns the ball against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Flushing, NYSource: Getty

Our TipStrong confidence
Stake.com

Match Winner

Alex Michelsen

Odds

16/13

Place Bet
Stake.com

Handicap Games

Michelsen +3.5

Odds

11/17

Place Bet
Stake.com

Handicap Sets

Michelsen +1.5

Odds

11/18

Place Bet
Alex Michelsen has played as well as anyone in this year's US Open, reaching the quarter-finals without dropping a single set. He has also looked remarkably consistent throughout this year's US Open Series, and that level of form makes him an appealing underdog in this matchup.

Michelsen Looks To Continue His US Open Breakthrough

  • Tiafoe is 2–1 in quarterfinal matches at the US Open. 
  • He has a 32–9 record against players outside the Top 20 this year. 
  • Michelsen has a 1–2 record in tour-level quarterfinals this year. 
  • He is 3–0 against fellow Americans at Grand Slam tournaments.

HTH - Frances Tiafoe leads 2-0

YearTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025HoustonQFClayFrances Tiafoe7-5, 6-1
2024DallasR16IndoorFrances Tiafoe6-4, 6-3

Tiafoe Stuns Medvedev to Reach Another US Open Quarterfinal

Frances Tiafoe defeated World No. 8 Daniil Medvedev in straight sets to reach the quarterfinals at the US Open, winning 7-6, 6-4, 7-6. He lost his serve four times but broke his opponent five times during the match. 

This is Tiafoe's fifth consecutive Top 10 win on tour, making him the first American to achieve the feat since Mardy Fish in 2010. 

The American has reached the quarterfinals at the US Open three times before and progressed further in two of those runs, reaching the semifinals in 2022 and 2024. His only loss at this stage came against fellow American Ben Shelton in 2023. He will now face another American this week. 

The 28-year-old faced fitness issues a few weeks ago and also underwent surgery to remove a cyst from his wrist. However, he bounced back by reaching the final in Cincinnati the following week and has continued his strong momentum at the US Open. 

Tiafoe has played seven quarterfinals this year and won four of them, with two of those victories coming in North America. He also reached the finals in Acapulco and Cincinnati.

CategoryDetails
CountryUnited States
AgeBorn 20 January 1998
PlaysRight-handed
World RankingNo. 12
Career HighNo. 10 (19 June 2023)
Elo RankingNo. 15
Tour-Level Titles4

Michelsen Earns Career-Best Grand Slam Result

Alex Michelsen moved into the quarterfinals at the US Open after defeating Tomas Martin Etcheverry in straight sets, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4. He lost his serve once and broke his opponent three times during the match. 

This is Michelsen's best Grand Slam result of his career, and he has reached this stage by winning all four of his matches in straight sets this campaign, including victories over Brandon Nakashima and Daniel Merida Aguilar. 

The 22-year-old has registered notable results in North America this year, reaching the fourth round in Indian Wells and Miami, the quarterfinals in Washington and the third round in Montreal. He has also reached a couple of semifinals on the Challenger circuit, highlighting his strong record in this region. 

Michelsen has an 8-11 record in tour-level quarterfinals in his career and is 1-2 at this stage in 2026. Both of his losses this year came against fellow Americans.

CategoryDetails
CountryUnited States
AgeBorn 25 August 2004
PlaysRight-handed
World RankingNo. 46
Career HighNo. 30 (14 July 2025)
Elo RankingNo. 31
Tour-Level Titles0

Verdict

Our Verdict
Michelsen's excellent form and consistency give him a genuine chance of causing an upset here. With Tiafoe carrying some fitness concerns and not looking entirely convincing, the American underdog represents plenty of value. 

Backing Alex Michelsen to win, cover the +3.5 games handicap and the +1.5 sets handicap.

Stake.com
Top Pick

Alex Michelsen

at Stake.com

Stake.com

Michelsen +3.5

at Stake.com

Stake.com

Michelsen +1.5

at Stake.com

James Smith
James Smith

After playing footy from the age of 8, James always knew that this is a career path that he wanted to follow. Featuring as one of our sports and betting writers, James plays an integral part of the day-to-day running of the site.

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