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Home / Tennis / Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Picks & Live Stream – Paul Brings Hard-Court Threat to Alcaraz at the US Open

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Picks & Live Stream – Paul Brings Hard-Court Threat to Alcaraz at the US Open

Quick Read

  • Carlos Alcaraz faces Tommy Paul in a high-stakes US Open 4th round
  • Alcaraz boasts a dominant Grand Slam record but Paul has new momentum
  • Betting tips: Over 3.5 sets, over 33.5 games, and Paul +6.5 game handicap
James Smith
Written by James Smith
Updated: Sep 6, 2026
Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul hits a return against Alexander Bublik in New York CitySource: Getty

Our TipStrong confidence
Stake.com

Total Sets

Over 3.5

Odds

8/11

Place Bet
Stake.com

Total Games

Over 33.5

Odds

4/7

Place Bet
Stake.com

Handicap Games

Paul +6.5

Odds

9/13

Place Bet
This will be Carlos Alcaraz's biggest and toughest test since returning from his injury break. He has managed his first few matches well enough, but Tommy Paul represents a much more demanding challenge. 

Fortunately for Alcaraz, Paul has not been at his absolute best recently, which should give the Spaniard a good chance of negotiating this difficult test.

Paul Faces A Formidable Test Against Alcaraz

  • Tommy Paul is 0–2 in fourth-round matches at the US Open. 
  • He has a 0–8 record against Top 5 players at Grand Slam tournaments. 
  • Alcaraz is 14–1 in fourth-round matches at Grand Slam tournaments. 
  • He has a 12–0 record against American opponents at Grand Slam tournaments.

HTH - Carlos Alcaraz leads 6-2

YearTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026Australian OpenR16HardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(6), 6-4, 6-5
2025French OpenQFClayCarlos Alcaraz6-0, 6-1, 6-4
2024Olympics – ParisQFClayCarlos Alcaraz6-3, 7-6(7)
2024WimbledonQFGrassCarlos Alcaraz5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2
2023CincinnatiR16HardCarlos Alcaraz7-6(6), 6-7(0), 6-3
2023TorontoQFHardTommy Paul6-3, 4-6, 6-3
2023MiamiR16HardCarlos Alcaraz6-4, 6-4
2022Montreal2RHardTommy Paul6-7(4), 7-6(7), 6-3

Paul Produces a Huge Comeback to Reach the Second Week

Tommy Paul registered an impressive five-set comeback win against Alexander Bublik to reach the second week at the US Open, winning 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3. He lost his serve twice but converted six of the eight break points he created during the match. 

This is Paul's third second-week appearance at the US Open. He previously faced Ben Shelton and Jannik Sinner at this stage in 2023 and 2024 but lost both matches. He will be looking for a better result this week against the returning Carlos Alcaraz. 

Paul started the North American swing with early-round exits in both Washington and Montreal but reached the quarterfinals in Cincinnati after defeating Alexander Zverev. He will need to draw confidence from that run as he looks to progress further in New York. 

He has played eight Grand Slam round-of-16 matches before and won half of them. However, all four of his victories at this stage came against players ranked outside the Top 20.

CategoryDetails
CountryUnited States
AgeBorn 17 May 1997
PlaysRight-handed
World RankingNo. 21
Career HighNo. 8 (9 June 2025)
Elo RankingNo. 13
Tour-Level Titles5

Alcaraz Enters the Second Week With His Level Improving

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Yibing Wu in straight sets to reach the fourth round at the US Open, winning 6-3, 6-4, 6-1. Despite losing his serve twice, his performance was an improvement on his previous two matches and showed signs of a gradual rise in level this week. 

This is Alcaraz's fifth second-week appearance in six US Open appearances. He has won all four of his previous matches at this stage in New York and will be looking to maintain that perfect record. 

The Spaniard had not played a competitive match for four months due to a wrist injury, and all three of his matches this week have come against players ranked outside the Top 50. This will be his first major test against a higher-ranked opponent and should provide a better indication of his fitness in a competitive battle. 

Alcaraz has lost only three of his 29 matches this year, with two of those defeats coming in North America, against Sebastian Korda in the third round in Miami and Daniil Medvedev in the Indian Wells semifinals. 

The Spaniard heads into this clash with an impressive 14-1 record in Grand Slam round-of-16 matches. His only loss at this stage came against Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon in 2022, and he will be aiming to continue his outstanding record against Paul.

CategoryDetails
CountrySpain
AgeBorn 5 May 2003
PlaysRight-handed
World RankingNo. 3
Career HighNo. 1 (12 September 2022)
Elo RankingNo. 2
Tour-Level Titles27

Verdict

Our Verdict
This has all the ingredients for a hard-fought battle. Paul's quality and ability to compete in these conditions should allow him to keep the score close, while Alcaraz may still need to work hard as he continues to regain his rhythm following the injury layoff. 

Backing over 3.5 sets, over 33.5 games in the match and Tommy Paul to cover the +6.5 games handicap offers an attractive betting combination.

Stake.com
Top Pick

Over 3.5

at Stake.com

Stake.com

Over 33.5

at Stake.com

Stake.com

Paul +6.5

at Stake.com

James Smith
James Smith

After playing footy from the age of 8, James always knew that this is a career path that he wanted to follow. Featuring as one of our sports and betting writers, James plays an integral part of the day-to-day running of the site.

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