New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Predictions & Picks – Patriots To Bounce Back In NFL
- Patriots tipped to cover -6.5 spread at Miami
- New England's road losses against strong opposition; Miami's form unconvincing
- Over 43.5 points is also suggested, but Patriots -6.5 is main tip
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Predictions & Picks
New England are tipped to cover as they win on the road in Miami.
The Patriots exorcised some Hard Rock Stadium demons with last season’s win over the Dolphins, and while their road record this season is ugly at first glance, they have faced a string of good teams.
Drake Maye played well against Chicago – bad pick aside – so an immediate response from the Pats could be on the cards.
- New England Patriots are 3-1-0 ATS in their 4 wins
- Miami Dolphins are 1-4-0 ATS in their 5 defeats
- New England Patriots swept the Miami Dolphins last season
- The Over has cashed in each of New England’s last 4 games
Head To Head
- Miami Dolphins lead the all-time series 64-57
- New England Patriots won 38-10 when the two teams last met in January 2026
New England Patriots Form
New England head to Miami looking to bounce back from the loss in Chicago, which dropped them to 4-3.
The Patriots kicked off the campaign with a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl, and they again came up short against Seattle as they lost 13-10.
They rebounded a week later to beat Pittsburgh 20-3 at home, only to then suffer a 35-6 blowout defeat when they visited Jacksonville.
New England responded in style though, winning 29-26 in Buffalo, and they backed that up at home by beating Las Vegas 45-17 and the New York Jets 26-19.
The Patriots failed to make it four-in-a-row though, as they lost 30-24 in Chicago on Thursday Night Football.
Miami Dolphins Form
Miami come into this matchup looking to build on last week’s win, which snapped their five-game losing skid.
The Dolphins opened the season with a 27-13 defeat in Las Vegas, and things did not get any better over the next few weeks.
They lost 35-13 at San Francisco, before suffering a 24-10 defeat at the hands of Kansas City in their home opener.
Miami’s losing start then reached five games as they were beaten 15-10 at Minnesota and 31-24 at home by Cincinnati.
The Dolphins did finally stop the rot last Sunday though, as they edged the New York Jets on the road, 28-25.
Verdict
New England have won just once on the road this season, but it was an impressive victory and their three losses have all come against playoff contenders.
Miami do not fit into that bracket and one win over a bad Jets team does little to inspire confidence, so we expect the Patriots to deliver the victory and the cover here.
Miami do not fit into that bracket and one win over a bad Jets team does little to inspire confidence, so we expect the Patriots to deliver the victory and the cover here.
Leigh Copson
Sports Editor • 25+ Years Experience, US & Combat Sports Specialist
US sports writer covering the NFL, NBA, NHL, boxing and MMA, with previews, predictions and betting tips across the major American leagues.
During his career at the Press Association and online sports sites including FreeTips and ExpertPicks.com, he has covered some of the biggest sporting events on the planet, including the Super Bowl, the Champions League Final and the World Cup Final.
He has also covered almost every major boxing match and UFC fight card during this time.. His specialist sports are American Football, Basketball, Ice Hockey, Boxing, Mixed Martial Arts and Football.