Avalanche vs Senators Prediction and Picks - Ullmark still in Doubt
- Colorado Avalanche are tipped to win against Ottawa Senators.
- Ottawa may be without top goalie Linus Ullmark, weakening their defence.
- Devon Toews over 0.5 points and Artturi Lehkonen over 1.5 shots are also recommended.
Avalanche vs Senators Prediction and Picks
Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators Prediction and Pick - ExpertPicks
Colorado's attack will be too much for an Ottawa crease that may be missing its best goalie.
Linus Ullmark's lower-body injury shapes the pick in this Avalanche vs Senators prediction, as the Colorado Avalanche bring a 78-goal attack into Canadian Tire Centre to face the Ottawa Senators, with puck drop at 7 p.m. ET.
The Avalanche at -122 are my first bet. They've won 11 of 19 and six of their last 10, and they average 4.11 goals a game.
Their 4-5-0 road record is the one real knock. Ullmark has a .945 save percentage, though, and with him still day to day, Ottawa likely continue to turn to Sam Ersson at .885, which takes away the Senators' best counter.
Devon Toews over 0.5 points pays +130. He has 18 points in 19 games, has hit this in 12 of them and seven of his last 10, and he picked up a goal and an assist in Toronto on Tuesday.
Artturi Lehkonen over 1.5 shots is at -135. He's done it in 13 of 19 games, nine of his last 10 and all of his last five, and he's turned that volume into 13 goals.
Key Stats and Trends
- Nathan MacKinnon leads Colorado with 30 points, and Martin Necas has 24.
- Mackenzie Blackwood has won 10 of his 14 starts with a .901 save percentage.
- Lehkonen has 42 shots this season and scored in Tuesday's win in Toronto.
- Toews is averaging 22 minutes a night on the Avalanche back end.
Head to Head
The 2025-26 series was split 1-1, with Colorado winning 8-2 at home in January and Ottawa winning the rematch three weeks later. This is the first meeting of the new season.
That last game was January 28, 2026, a 5-2 Senators win in Ottawa. Parker Kelly tied it 1-1 midway through the second, but Ridly Greig answered 17 seconds later and Claude Giroux made it 3-1 early in the third.
Avalanche Form
Colorado are 6-3-1 in their last 10, and they've scored 19 more goals than they've allowed. The concern is the road, where they're 4-5-0 against 7-1-2 at home.
Blackwood stopped all 27 shots on Saturday as three power-play goals sank Detroit 4-0. In Toronto on Tuesday, the Leafs tied it 3-3 early in the third, but Landeskog scored 51 seconds later and Lehkonen added insurance at 17.15.
Josh Manson is on IR with an ankle injury until at least December 27, CBS Sports lists as of November 9, which thins the right side of the defence. Blackwood is expected to start.
Senators Form
Ottawa are 5-3-2 in their last 10 and 6-2-1 at home, but they've given up 3.00 goals a game. Tim Stützle leads them with 23 points, and Drake Batherson has 18.
Nick Cousins won Saturday's game against Utah with 2.18 left, and Ersson made 31 saves in a 4-2 win. On Tuesday, Ottawa led Washington 2-1 in the third before Pierre-Luc Dubois tied it at 12.31 and Cole Hutson won it in overtime.
Ullmark is day to day and Cousins is out until at least November 19, per CBS Sports updates from November 11, so Ottawa could still be without their top goalie and will be a forward short. Ersson is expected in goal.
Verdict
My Avalanche vs Senators picks take Colorado to win, with Toews on the scoresheet and Lehkonen getting his shots through.
Jeremy Darke
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst
Jeremy is a sports journalist and analyst covering major US leagues including NBA, NHL and NFL, seeking out player props and value.
From playing rugby, ice hockey, tennis and soccer in his home country of Australia to travelling the world covering US sports, he has found a niche in betting expertise.
His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster here at ExpertPicks.com.