Home / NFL / NFL Week 6 Interception Props - Leahlytics' Model Says Herbert, Maye and Jones Are Due
NFL Week 6 Interception Props - Leahlytics' Model Says Herbert, Maye and Jones Are Due
- Leahlytics’ interception model uses six years of data to predict key NFL Week 6 prop picks.
- Herbert, Maye, and Jones are tipped for Over, while Brissett is favored for Under 0.5 interceptions.
- The model exposes mismatches between real interception risk and sportsbook odds.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Jeremy Darke•Updated:
NFL Week 6 Interception Props from Leahlytics' Model
I'm taking Justin Herbert Over 1.5 interceptions, Drake Maye Over 0.5, Daniel Jones Over 0.5 and Jacoby Brissett Under 0.5 int.
All four picks come from one place - Leahlytics' interception-prone model. She looked at more than 80,000 throws from the last six seasons. For each one, she worked out how often a normal QB puts the ball in danger in that exact situation, then compared it with what each QB actually did. Her finding is simple: interceptions aren't random. The QBs making the worst decisions are the ones getting picked.
Watch her breakdown first. It's worth the 90 seconds.
Here's how I used it. Her chart has a regression line showing how many picks each QB has earned with his throws. I took each QB's spot on that line, multiplied it by his passing-attempts number this week, and turned it into a chance of throwing a pick. Then I compared that with the sportsbook price. Where the two disagree, there's a bet.
Key stats
- Herbert has thrown an interception in all 5 games, with 7 on 143 attempts
- Maye leads the league with 7 interceptions on 151 attempts
- Jones has a pick in 4 of 5 starts and has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3)
- Three of Brissett's 5 interceptions came in one game, with the last one on the final play
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Interceptions
Chargers at Chiefs, Sunday, Oct. 18, 4:25 p.m. ET
Leahlytics called Herbert "by far the most reckless quarterback in the league." He's put the ball in danger 10 times on 143 attempts, which works out to once every 14 throws. He sits right on her line, so this isn't bad luck. He's getting exactly the picks he deserves.
Her model gives him roughly a 37% chance of 2+ interceptions on a normal workload. The books though are pricing him at about 29%. Herbert also has to chase from 0-5 at Arrowhead, so he could easily throw more than usual. The Over 0.5 is fair too, but you're paying a lot of juice for it.
Drake Maye Over 0.5 Interceptions
Jets at Patriots, Sunday, Oct. 18, 1:00 p.m. ET
On her chart, only Herbert puts the ball in danger more often than Maye. The book is pricing him off one clean 4-touchdown game against Las Vegas, at roughly a 38% chance of a pick. Her line puts it closer to 64%. That's the biggest gap on the board.
Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions
Titans at Colts, Sunday, Oct. 18, 1:00 p.m. ET
Jones is one of her "got away with it" QBs. He's right of center, so he's riskier than the situation calls for, but he sits below the line. A 2.3% interception rate is flattering him. The market is still treating him like the careful QB of last season. I'm not.
Jacoby Brissett Under 0.5 Interceptions
Cardinals at Rams, Sunday, Oct. 18, 4:05 p.m. ET
This is the flip side. Brissett sits left of center, so he makes safer throws than the situation calls for, but he's above the line, which means he's been picked more than he deserves. His career 1.4% interception rate is tied for the lowest in NFL history, so one ugly day in New Jersey is propping up this price.
Why I'm Not Betting the Darnold Under
Seattle at Denver, Thursday, Oct. 15, 8:15 p.m. ET
Sam Darnold is her poster boy for bad luck: 5 interceptions from 4 bad throws. It's tempting to fade him Thursday night in Denver. But he still sits slightly right of center, so even after he regresses, her line has him around a 59% chance of a pick. The book is at about 55%. Unlucky doesn't mean safe, and I'm passing.
Verdict
The four top Interception Picks for Week 6 based on Leahlytics assessment.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.