SMU at Florida State Predictions & Picks
SMU are tipped to cover as they win a key conference matchup in their season-opener.
The Mustangs had their way with the Seminoles the last time these two teams met, and after an error-strewn performance from FSU a week ago, we like the visitors’ chances of downing Mike Norvell’s team again.
- SMU are 11-5-0 ATS in their 16 regular season games since joining the ACC
- SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings threw 3 touchdown passes in previous meeting
- Florida State are 2-8-0 ATS in their previous 10 games
- The Under hit in Florida State’s season-opener
Head To Head
- SMU lead the all-time series 1-0
- SMU won 42-16 when the two teams last met in September 2024
SMU Form
SMU enter the 2026 season with the conference championship and the playoffs firmly in their sights after a disappointing 2025 campaign.
The Mustangs made it all the way to championship in their first season in the ACC in 2024, but failed to follow that up last year as two of their four defeats came in conference play.
They won their first three games on the ACC slate, beating Syracuse 31-18, Stanford 34-10 and Clemson 35-24, only to then suffer a setback as they lost 13-12 at Wake Forest.
SMU rebounded to beat Miami FL 26-20, Boston College 45-13 and Louisville 38-6, but a 38-35 defeat at California in their regular season finale ended their ACC and playoff hopes.
The Mustangs did at least sign off on a positive note though, beating Arizona 24-19 in the Holiday Bowl.
Florida State Form
Florida State opened their campaign with a 34-17 victory over New Mexico State, but head coach Mike Norvell is already on the hot-seat after a couple of rough seasons.
The Seminoles won just two games during the 2024 campaign – losing seven of their eight games in the ACC – and managed only five victories in 2025.
They made a splash early on as the upset top-10 Alabama on opening weekend, 31-17, and that was followed by blowout wins over lesser schools.
However, Florida State’s form collapsed when the conference schedule began as they lost four straight games.
The Seminoles rallied to win two of the next three, but they wrapped up the ACC slate with a 21-11 loss at NC State, and dropped the regular season finale at Florida, 40-21, to finish 5-7.