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Federico Coria vs Matteo Berrettini Betting Picks and Preview - Clay Conditions Tighten the Gap in Buenos Aires
- Coria and Berrettini return to competition after extended breaks
- Coria thrives on South American clay, Berrettini leads head-to-head 3-0
- Key matchup on Buenos Aires clay to regain competitiveness
Matteo Berrettini is set to make his debut in Buenos Aires
(credit: Getty)
- Stats - Two Comebacks, One Tough Opener
- Head-to-Head - Matteo Berrettini Leads 3-0
- Coria Returns to Familiar Clay After Long Layoff
- Comeback Phase Continues for Berrettini
The slower conditions here and Coria’s grinding style could keep sets competitive. That gives him a fair chance to stay close on the scoreboard and makes the handicap line an appealing option.
Stats - Two Comebacks, One Tough Opener
- Coria has not played a competitive match since August 2025.
- He is a former semifinalist in Buenos Aires.
- Berrettini has not played a competitive match since the Davis Cup in November 2025.
- He will be making his debut in Buenos Aires.
Head-to-Head - Matteo Berrettini Leads 3-0
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | French Open | Clay | R2 | Berrettini | 6–3, 6–3, 6–2 |
| 2020 | Rome | Clay | R2 | Berrettini | 7–5, 6–1 |
| 2017 | San Benedetto Challenger | Clay | SF | Berrettini | 6–2, 6–4 |
Coria Returns to Familiar Clay After Long Layoff
Coria endured an injury hit stretch last season and was forced to shut down his year early after multiple retirements.
He has not played since August and returns here short of match fitness with plenty of questions around his physical level.
Despite the long break, he is very comfortable on South American clay and owns a deep body of work on this surface. Most of his career wins have come on clay in this region, where his grinding style is most effective.
Buenos Aires is a familiar stop for him and this will be his seventh appearance at the event. He reached the quarterfinal in 2022 and the semifinal in 2024, showing he can perform well in these conditions.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Argentina |
| Age | 33 (9 March 1992) |
| Height / Weight | 180 cm / 73 kg |
| Plays | Right-handed (two-handed backhand) |
| Current Singles Rank | 322 |
| Career-High Singles Rank | 49 (13 Feb 2023) |
| Elo Rank | 201 (1580) |
| Titles | 0 |
Comeback Phase Continues for Berrettini
Berrettini’s recent seasons have been disrupted by recurring fitness problems and those concerns remain at the start of this year.
He skipped the Australian Open and has had very little competitive tennis in recent months. His only outing this year came in an exhibition event where he showed flashes but lacked rhythm across matches.
He clearly needs match time to rebuild confidence and sharpness on court. It is a surprise to see him return on South American clay rather than indoors, a surface that has suited him better.
He has limited experience on this swing and will be making his debut in Buenos Aires.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Italy |
| Age | 29 (12 April 1996) |
| Height / Weight | 196 cm / 95 kg |
| Plays | Right-handed (two-handed backhand) |
| Current Singles Rank | 58 |
| Career-High Singles Rank | 6 (31 Jan 2022) |
| Elo Rank | 31 (1852) |
| Titles | 10 |
Verdict
On hard courts or grass, Berrettini would be a heavy favorite to win this matchup in straight sets regardless of his recent form. On South American clay the gap narrows, with Coria far more adapted to these slower conditions and comfortable in long rallies.
That should help him stay competitive on the scoreboard and makes the handicap games an appealing betting option.
Coria +5.5
Handicap Games
@-129.87 - 4 Units
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Over 8.5
Coria Total Games
@103.00 - 2 Units
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Yes
Coria to Win a Set
@145.00 - 1 Unit
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