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Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Preview & Picks – Aspinall To Win Interim Title At UFC 295

leigh-copson
08 Nov 2023
leigh-copson
Leigh Copson 08 Nov 2023
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  • Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall picks for Saturday, November 11
  • UFC 295 is taking place at Madison Square Garden in New York
  • Preview, predictions, stats & form
    Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Preview & Picks
  • Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Preview & Picks
  • Sergei Pavlovich Form
  • Tom Aspinall Form

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Preview & Picks

Tom Aspinall is tipped to win the interim heavyweight title.

Both men boast fight-stopping power and both have showcased their ability to finish fights quickly.

Aspinall is more accurate and harder to hit though, and he has the edge on the mat, where we expect him to take this fight.

  • 10 of Tom Aspinall’s 13 career wins have been by stoppage
  • 2 of Aspinall’s last 4 victories have been by submission
  • 12 of Aspinall’s 13 career wins have come in the first round
  • Sergei Pavlovich’s only career defeat came via stoppage
  • Pavlovich’s last 8 fights have all ended inside one round

Sergei Pavlovich Form

Sergei Pavlovich is the #2 ranked heavyweight contender with an 18-1 career record (15 KOs).

Pavlovich did not make the best of starts to his UFC career as he was knocked out by Alistair Overeem in the first round.

He has rebounded since then though, winning six consecutive fights to catapult himself into title contention.

The 31-year-old Russia registered his first win when he knocked out Marcelo Golm in the first round, in April 2019, and a few months later he stopped Maurice Greene in just 131 seconds.

Pavlovich did not fight again until March of last year, but he made up for lost time by stopping Shamil Abdurakhimov in the opening round.

He then took just 55 seconds to knock out former title challenger Derrick Lewis, before finishing the year with a 54-second stoppage of Tai Tuivasa.

Pavlovich then took his win streak to six fights back in April when he took out Curtis Blaydes with strikes in just over three minutes.

Tom Aspinall Form

Tom Aspinall is the #4 ranked heavyweight contender with a career record of 13-3 (10 KOs, 3 Subs).

Aspinall made his UFC debut in July 2020 and got off to a flying start with first-round knockouts of Jake Collier and Alan Baudot.

He then recorded one of his biggest wins to date, tapping out former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski in the second round.

The 30-year-old Englishman backed that up by stopping Sergei Spivac with strikes in only 150 seconds, and he then needed less than four minutes to submit Alexander Volkov.

That set up a huge fight with title implications, but Aspinall’s big night ended up being a nightmare.

He suffered a serious knee injury just 15 seconds into his fight with Curtis Blaydes in London, putting him on the sidelines for almost a year.

Aspinall finally made his long-awaited return in July though, and he made up for lost time by knocking out Marcin Tybura in 73 seconds.

Verdict

Both fighters have a knack for stopping their opponent with strikes and both have a knack for doing it quickly.

Aspinall has a grappling advantage though, and we believe the Englishman will use that advantage to walk away with the interim heavyweight crown.

Best Bet1: Tom Aspinall Winner @-125.00 at Stake.us - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Aspinall by Sub. Method Of Victory @350.00 at Stake.us - 2 Units
Tom Aspinall
Winner
@-125.00 - 4 Units
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Aspinall by Sub.
Method Of Victory
@350.00 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
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Sign up with the code NEWBONUS and when you verify your account get 25 Stake Cash for free PLUS 250,000 Gold Coins! No deposit required. 21+ only. T&Cs apply. Excludes NY,NV,ID, KY,WA, MI.

Bet at Stake.us