Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Picks & Live Stream – Medvedev the Risk-Reward Play in Indian Wells

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1 hour ago
James Smith 1 hour ago
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  • Medvedev stops Alcaraz’s 17-match streak to enter Indian Wells final
  • Sinner breaks semifinal barrier, aiming for first Indian Wells title
  • Both players in strong form, promising an exciting final matchup
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev celebrates match point against Carlos Alcaraz in Indian Wells (credit: Getty)
Daniil Medvedev extended his winning streak with an increasingly impressive victory over Carlos Alcaraz, continuing his dominant run. With the way he is playing right now, he brings serious momentum into this matchup despite his tricky history against Jannik Sinner.

Sinner Chases Desert Crown

  • Daniil Medvedev has not beaten a Top 10 player in a final since Rome 2023. 
  • He has won five of his last six matches vs Top 10 players.
  • Jannik Sinner has a 49–3 record vs outside Top 10 players since the start of 2025. 
  • He holds a 5–4 record in Masters finals. 

HTH - Jannik Sinner leads 8-7

Year Event Surface Round Winner Score
2024 Masters Cup ATP Indoor Hard - Sinner 6-3, 6-4
2024 Shanghai Hard QF Sinner 6-1, 6-4
2024 US Open Hard QF Sinner 6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 6-4
2024 Wimbledon Grass QF Medvedev 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 2-6, 6-3
2024 Miami Hard SF Sinner 6-1, 6-2
2024 Australian Open Hard F Sinner 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3
2023 Masters Cup ATP Indoor Hard SF Sinner 6-3, 6-7, 6-1
2023 Vienna Indoor Hard F Sinner 7-6, 4-6, 6-3
2023 Beijing Hard F Sinner 7-6, 7-6
2023 Miami Hard F Medvedev 7-5, 6-3
2023 Rotterdam Indoor Hard F Medvedev 5-7, 6-2, 6-2
2022 Vienna Indoor Hard QF Medvedev 6-4, 6-2
2021 Masters Cup ATP Indoor Hard - Medvedev 6-0, 6-7, 7-6
2021 Marseille Indoor Hard QF Medvedev 6-2, 6-4
2020 Marseille Indoor Hard R16 Medvedev 1-6, 6-1, 6-2

Medvedev Ends Alcaraz Streak

Daniil Medvedev ended Carlos Alcaraz’s 17-match winning streak with a 6-3, 7-6 victory to reach the Indian Wells final. He saved four of five break points and converted both chances he created. 

This will be Medvedev’s third final at Indian Wells. He previously reached this stage in 2023 and 2024, losing both times to Alcaraz in straight sets. 

The Russian is enjoying a strong run in 2026 after a couple of difficult seasons. This is his third final of the year, having already won titles in Brisbane and Dubai. 

Those victories, combined with this win over Alcaraz, should give Medvedev plenty of confidence and momentum heading into the final. 

Medvedev holds a 23-19 record in tour-level finals. He is 6-4 in Masters finals, with all four losses coming against top-two opponents, while his most recent Masters title came in Rome against Holger Rune.

Category Details
Nationality Russia
Age 30 (11 February 1996)
Plays Right-handed
World Ranking 11
Career High 1 (28 February 2022)
Elo Ranking 9 (Rating: 1996)
Tour level titles 23

Sinner Downs Zverev Comfortably

Jannik Sinner defeated Alexander Zverev 6-2, 6-4 to reach the Indian Wells final. He fired eight aces, won 83% of his first-serve points, and saved the only break point he faced. 

This is Sinner’s best result at Indian Wells. He previously reached back-to-back semifinals in 2023 and 2024, losing both times to Carlos Alcaraz. 

It is Sinner’s first final of the season. Earlier this year, he lost to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinal and to Jakub Mensik in the Doha quarterfinal. 

Sinner holds a 25-9 record in tour-level finals. Apart from Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev is the only player to defeat him twice in finals, both coming in 2023 in Rotterdam and Miami. 

He has a 5-4 record in Masters finals, with three of those titles coming against players ranked outside the top 10. His most recent Masters title came at the Paris Masters last year.

Category Details
Nationality Italy
Age 24 (16 August 2001)
Plays Right-handed
World Ranking 2
Career High 1 (10 June 2024)
Elo Ranking 2 (Rating: 2268)
Tour level titles 25

Verdict

Medvedev’s current form is hard to ignore. Medvedev to win a set looks a strong play, with a small punt on Medvedev to win the match outright also offering good value.

Best Bet1: Medvedev +1.5 Handicap Sets @109.00 at Stake.com - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Daniil Medvedev Match Winner @333.00 at Stake.com - 1 Unit
Medvedev +1.5
Handicap Sets
@109.00 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

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Daniil Medvedev
Match Winner
@333.00 - 1 Unit
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet at Stake.com

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