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Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka Betting Picks & Live Stream – Wawrinka to Gain Early Advantage in Monte Carlo
- Sebastian Baez struggles in Monte Carlo; seeks first-round breakthrough
- Stan Wawrinka shows improvement, aims for early-match edge
- Wawrinka favored for value bets in the early stages against Baez
Stan Wawrinka plays a backhand against Thijs Boogaard in Rotterdam
(credit: Getty)
Sebastian Baez looked below his usual level in Bucharest last week, which makes his current price a bit too short. That opens the door for Stan Wawrinka, who can still produce high-quality tennis, especially early in matches when he is fresh.
Baez Faces Monte Carlo Struggles
- Sebastian Baez is 0–4 in opening-round matches in Monte Carlo.
- He has an 8–3 record vs outside Top 50 players in 2026.
- Stan Wawrinka is 4–0 in opening-round matches on tour in 2026.
- He has a 2–11 record vs Top 50 players in the last 12 months.
HTH - Sebastian Baez leads 1-0
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | United Cup | Hard | - | Baez | 7-5, 6-4 |
Baez Seeks Breakthrough In Monte Carlo
Sebastian Baez is coming off a disappointing week in Bucharest, where he failed to defend runner-up points and suffered an early exit against Titouan Droguet in the second round.
He started the season strongly with a final in Auckland and looked close to returning to the top 30. However, a first-round exit during his title defense in Rio de Janeiro pushed him back outside the top 50.
Despite that setback, he has posted solid results elsewhere, including semifinal runs in Buenos Aires and Santiago, along with a third-round appearance at the Indian Wells.
Baez is now making his fifth appearance in Monte Carlo, where all four of his previous campaigns have ended in the first round.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Argentina |
| Age | 25 (28 December 2000) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 50 |
| Career High | 18 (24 June 2024) |
| Elo Ranking | 65 (Rating: 1769) |
| Tour level titles | 7 |
Wawrinka Looks To Build Momentum
Stan Wawrinka arrives this week after an opening-round exit at the Naples Challenger, where he lost to Matteo Martineau from a set up. It marked his first opening-round defeat of the year.
Before that, he had played four tournaments and cleared the opening round in all of them, including a third-round run at the Australian Open.
Despite mixed results, this represents a clear improvement after recent seasons affected by fitness issues. Last year, he failed to win a tour-level match in the first three months, while most of his losses this year have come against higher-ranked opponents.
Wawrinka has made 16 appearances in Monte Carlo, reaching at least the quarterfinals five times, including a title run. However, he has managed just two wins across his last five appearances here.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Switzerland |
| Age | 41 (28 March 1985) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 98 |
| Career High | 3 (27 January 2014) |
| Elo Ranking | 105 (Rating: 1699) |
| Tour level titles | 16 |
Verdict
The early stages look key here. Wawrinka to win the first set, along with Wawrinka +2.5 games and Wawrinka +1.5 games in the first set, all offer solid value in this matchup.
Stan Wawrinka
1st Set Winner
@137.00 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
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Wawrinka +2.5
Handicap Games
@117.00 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
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Wawrinka +1.5
Handicap Games 1st Set
@-101.01 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
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Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.
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