The trend is your friend say successful investors and it’s no different in sports betting. Monitoring betting trends data is a vital tool used by successful professional handicappers to seek out value in the sports betting market. 

We use two simple strategies to make the trend our friend; Betting against the public, and reverse line movement.

Betting Against the Public


The case for betting against whatever everyone else is doing is simple. The bookmakers make money and punters lose money, so it makes sense to find out what the punters favour and bet with your bookmaker not against it.

Whatever team the public likes most, it’s a good idea to bet the other way. 

Fundamentally, this is how the odds for any game are set. They begin with the true probability of an outcome based on historical data, but when the bookmaker sees which way the wind is blowing the sportsbooks are forced to move their lines to protect themselves.

The public is not rational when it comes to sports and this irrationality means that you can get an extra point or two on a bet as the operators adjust. This will increase your winning percentage from sports betting by 3% to 4% over time.

This strategy works for all the popular sports; MLB, NBA. NFL, NCAA and NHL. Betting against the public is profitable.

Reverse Line Movement


The reverse line movement betting strategy targets movements which contradict public betting percentages.

For example, if the Indianapolis Colts are -14 vs. Oakland Raiders +14. Then the line moves against Indianapolis making them -13, this is an indication that the clever money is going against them and it’s time to make a bet on Oakland if you can still get +14 at another book.

Only attentive sports bettors will pick up on these trends, and ExpertPicks is attentive!