Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Predictions & Picks – Topuria To Retain By KO At UFC Freedom 250

By Leigh Copson

09 Jun 2026

Leigh Copson 09 Jun 2026

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Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje picks for Sunday, June 14
UFC Freedom 250 is taking place at The White House in Washington, DC
Preview, predictions, stats & form

Ilia Topuria (Getty Images)

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Predictions & Picks

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Predictions & Picks
Ilia Topuria Form
Justin Gaethje Form

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Predictions & Picks

Ilia Topuria is tipped to retain the UFC lightweight title by knockout.

Topuria has been a wrecking ball since arriving in the UFC, but Justin Gaethje is not an ‘easy out’, and that level of durability means the champion may need a couple of rounds to end this contest.

6 of Ilia Topuria’s last 8 wins have been by knockout
Ilia Topuria has gone the distance in just 2 of his 9 fights in the UFC
3 of Justin Gaethje’s 5 career defeats have been via knockout
Justin Gaethje has never been knocked out in under 1.5 rounds

Ilia Topuria Form

Ilia Topuria is a former UFC featherweight champion and the current UFC lightweight title-holder with a career record of 17-0 (7 KOs, 8 Subs).

Topuria signed with the UFC in 2020 and wasted little time in climbing the featherweight ladder.

He beat Youssef Zalal by unanimous decision in his debut outing, and followed that up with a first-round knockout of Damon Jackson, sparking a run of stoppage victories.

The 29-year-old then took out Ryan Hall with strikes in the first round, before dispatching Jai Herbert via knockout in the second round.

Topuria showcased his all-round skill-set in December 2022 when he scored his first submission win in the UFC, tapping out Bryce Mitchell, only to see his run of stoppage successes end in June 2023 when he went the distance with Josh Emmett, winning on points.

‘El Matador’ has not heard the final bell since then though, reeling off three knockout victories to reach the summit in both the featherweight and lightweight decisions.

He claimed the featherweight crown in February 2024 when he knocked out Alexander Volkanovski in the second round, and later that year he successfully retained the championship with a third-round knockout of Max Holloway.

Topuria then vacated the title to go after the lightweight crown, and he won that in June of last year by stopping Charles Oliveira with strikes in less than half a round.

Justin Gaethje Form

Justin Gaethje is the current number one contender and interim lightweight champion with a professional record of 27-5 (20 KOs, 1 Sub).

Gaethje arrived in the UFC in 2017 after a successful run with the World Series of Fighting, but after knocking out Michael Johnson in his debut, he suffered knockout losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier.

He rallied with an 87-second knockout of James Vick, and backed that up by knocking out Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone to set up a fight for the interim lightweight championship.

The 37-year-old stopped Tony Ferguson in the final round to win the interim title in May 2020, but failed to become the true champion later that year when he was submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Gaethje rebounded with a points win over Michael Chandler, but failed to follow that up as he was submitted in the first round by Charles Oliveira in their fight for the vacant lightweight title.

‘The Highlight’ again responded quickly to a setback, beating Rafael Fiziev by majority decision, and he then earned the symbolic ‘BMF’ title in July 2023 when he knocked out Dustin Poirier in the second round.

He lost that ‘championship’ a year later, when he was knocked out by Max Holloway in the fifth round, but he has not tasted defeat since then.

Gaethje bounced back with another points win over Fiziev, and in January of this year he out-pointed Paddy Pimblett to earn the interim lightweight belt and this title shot.

Verdict

UFC Freedom 250

Ilia Topuria has been on a devastating run, showcasing his fight-finishing abilities, and he can get job done inside the distance here.

However, Gaethje is known for his durability, so it could take Topuria a couple of rounds to land the fight-finishing strikes.

Topuria by KO/TKO

Method Of Victory

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Topuria by KO & +1.5

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Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Predictions & Picks – Topuria To Retain By KO At UFC Freedom 250

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Predictions & Picks

Ilia Topuria Form

Justin Gaethje Form

Verdict

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