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World Cup 2026: Group I Preview & Picks - Norway Tipped to Claim Top Spot
- Norway tipped to win Group I at 3.75
- Senegal expected to secure qualification
- Iraqi's could struggle in demanding section
Erling Haaland of Norway (Getty Images)
Group I Preview - France, Norway, Senegal and Iraq
Group I could prove one of the most competitive sections at this summer’s finals, with 2022 finalists France joined by a returning Norway, AFCON finalists Senegal and Asian qualifiers Iraq.
As expected, the French are short-priced at 1.40 to win the section, with Norway next at 3.75, Senegal at 9.0, and Iraq available at 41.0.
Didier Deschamps’ side remain one of the strongest teams in world football, but they have not always convinced since their World Cup final defeat against Argentina four years ago.
Norway and Senegal will both fancy their chances of troubling the French in what promises to be one of the more intriguing sections in the competition.
Let’s take a closer look at Group I.
France
- FIFA Ranking: 1
- Manager: Didier Deschamps
- Odds to Win Group I: 1.40
France are odds-on favourites to win Group I, but their price (1.4) looks a little short in a hugely competitive section featuring two dangerous dark-horse opponents.
Since a remarkable 5-4 defeat against Spain in the Nations League, the French have responded well, picking up eight wins and one draw during an unbeaten nine-game sequence.
Didier Deschamps has already confirmed this will be his final tournament in charge, and Les Bleus will be determined to deliver another deep run for the outgoing boss after reaching the last two World Cup finals.
Champions in 2018, France suffered a painful penalty-shootout defeat in the final against Argentina four years later. However, with so much attacking quality available, they will be confident of going one better in the Americas.
Loaded with options in the final third, Kylian Mbappe will be keen to bounce back from a trophyless domestic season with Real Madrid. Ousmane Dembele, Ballon d’Or winner in 2025, Michael Olise, Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola and Jean-Philippe Mateta add to Deschamps’ huge attacking depth.
Mbappe’s recent injury issues and ongoing problems in Madrid remain a cause for concern, though.
Recent friendly wins against Brazil and Colombia showcased their impressive strength in depth, with rotated lineups producing a pair of impressive victories. Still, two clean sheets in their last seven suggest some issues remain at the back.
William Saliba should form a world-class centre-back partnership with Dayot Upamecano, while talented Milan goalkeeper Mike Maignan is expected to start in goal. In midfield, France boast an intriguing blend of youth and experience, with N’Golo Kante and Warren Zaire-Emery expected to take key roles this summer.
Undeniably, France have the best squad in the section, but Norway’s attacking firepower and superb form make them worth taking on at a generous price.
Norway
- FIFA Ranking: 31
- Manager: Stale Solbakken
- Odds to Win Group I: 3.75
Norway return to the World Cup for the first time since 1998 and look like one of the most dangerous value picks in the group winner market.
Unbeaten in all but one of 15 internationals since October 2024, the Norwegians warmed up for their return to the big stage with an impressive 3-1 win against Scandinavian rivals Sweden at the start of June.
Stale Solbakken’s side enjoyed a sensational qualification campaign last year, winning all eight matches and scoring a remarkable 37 goals. They finished ahead of Italy, beating the Azzurri twice, including a stunning 4-1 victory in Milan.
Manchester City number nine Erling Haaland was unstoppable during qualifying, scoring a frankly ridiculous 16 goals in eight appearances. With Martin Odegaard expected to enjoy more attacking freedom than he is usually afforded at Arsenal, Norway could have one of the most dangerous attacks at the tournament.
Alexander Sorloth, Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb add further attacking quality, while Sander Berge and Morten Thorsby provide power and balance in the middle of the park.
Norway’s opening game against Iraq gives them a great chance to build early momentum before a crucial clash with Senegal that could decide the automatic qualification spots.
If they take six points from those first two fixtures, their final meeting with France could prove very interesting in the battle for top spot.
Senegal
- FIFA Ranking: 14
- Manager: Pape Thiaw
- Odds to Win Group I: 9.0
AFCON finalists Senegal come into the World Cup finals with plenty of confidence, but their route to automatic qualification looks particularly challenging.
Placed in one of the tougher-looking sections at the competition, the Senegalese landed few favours in the draw, but recent form gives them every chance of being competitive in Group I.
Their build-up has been dominated by controversy following the AFCON final against Morocco, where a disputed late penalty and a temporary walk-off left Senegal at the centre of one of African football’s most hotly disputed incidents in generations.
Outside of their controversial AFCON final walkover defeat against Morocco earlier this year, Pape Thiaw’s men have lost just two of 21 games in the past 12 months.
Despite that noise, Senegal have every chance of making an impact this summer. Kalidou Koulibaly remains the defensive leader, Edouard Mendy offers plenty of experience in goal, while Pape Sarr gives them Premier League-level quality in midfield.
Further forward, the Lions of Teranga have enough firepower in the forward areas to challenge Norway and France. Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson, Iliman Ndiaye and Ismaila Sarr give them pace, experience and direct threat in the final third.
Senegal are likely to be compact, physical and rapid in the attacking areas, but a top-two finish could prove beyond their reach. Victory against Iraq should secure a place in the knockout phase, where they are likely to prove dangerous underdogs going forward.
Iraq
- FIFA Ranking: 58
- Manager: Graham Arnold
- Odds to Win Group I: 41.0
Iraq return to the World Cup for the first time since 1986, but they have landed in one of the toughest groups at the finals.
Graham Arnold’s side secured qualification with a 2-1 playoff win against Bolivia in Mexico earlier this year, ending a 40-year wait to return to the global stage.
The Iraqis finished third in their AFC qualifying group after a mixed run of results. The Lions of Mesopotamia won just four of ten qualifiers before finishing behind Saudi Arabia in the fourth round and eventually securing their place via the intercontinental playoffs.
Strong defensively, Iraq conceded only ten goals in their last 11 qualifiers. However, a lack of quality in the final third is likely to be an issue in the Americas. Arnold’s side had scored just ten goals in 12 matches before their playoff win in Mexico.
With that lack of firepower, Iraq are expected to focus on discipline, structure and defensive organisation. Arnold will likely lean on squad unity and a compact shape, with the Asian qualifiers sure to bring plenty of fire and passion to their US-based fixtures in Boston and Philadelphia before a final group match against Senegal in Toronto.
Despite a lack of big-name talent, Iraq do possess experience and some quality through the spine of the side. Zidane Iqbal offers technical ability in midfield, while Ali Al-Hamadi provides a physical focal point in attack.
Still, given the strength of opposition, it would be a major achievement for Iraq to pick up any positive results in June.
The Lions of Mesopotamia should arrive with plenty of pride and emotional momentum, but they seem unlikely to offer a serious threat to the established order in Group I.
Group I Prediction:
1) Norway
2) France
3) Senegal
4) Iraq
Verdict
Preview and best bets for FIFA World Cup 2026 Group I, featuring France, Norway, Senegal and Iraq.
Norway
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