Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Betting Picks & Live Stream – Jodar to Finish It Efficiently in Marrakech

james-smith
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James Smith 1 hour ago
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  • Jodar reaches first tour-level semifinal, moving up the rankings
  • Carabelli makes semifinals after three consecutive three-set wins
  • Their first meeting could hinge on Carabelli's fatigue vs. Jodar's form
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar plays a shot against Denis Shapovalov in Frisco (credit: Getty)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli has battled through to the semifinals despite clear physical struggles, playing three consecutive three-set matches. With fatigue building up, this could leave him vulnerable at this stage.

Jodar Meets Semifinal Test

  • Jodar is 20–2 vs outside Top 50 players this year. 
  • This is his maiden tour-level semifinal. 
  • Ugo Carabelli is 0–4 in tour-level semifinals. 
  • He has won 12 of his last 14 matches vs outside Top 50 players.

HTH

This will be their first meeting.

Jodar Reaches Maiden Tour Semifinal

Rafael Jodar moved into his maiden tour-level semifinal after Alexandre Muller retired due to illness while trailing by a set and a break. He had earlier defeated Tomas Machac in three sets. 

A year ago, he was ranked outside the top 700, but has since made rapid progress. Over the past 12 months, he has reached eight semifinals or better on the Challenger circuit, including three titles. 

He has carried that form onto the main tour, reaching the third round in Miami and second round at the Australian Open. He achieved a career-high ranking of No. 89 last week and is set to climb further.

CategoryDetails
NationalitySpain
Age19 (17 September 2006)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking89
Career High89 (30 March 2026)
Elo Ranking40 (Rating: 1828)
Tour level titles0

Carabelli Fights Back For Semifinal

Camilo Ugo Carabelli moved into the semifinals with a 0-6, 6-3, 6-2 comeback win over Luca Van Assche. It was his third consecutive three-set victory this week, having also beaten Timofey Skatov and Ignacio Buse. 

The Argentine had a mixed start to the season, with his best results coming on South American clay, including a Challenger title in Rosario and a quarterfinal in Buenos Aires. 

Carabelli holds a 0-4 record in tour-level semifinals, with three of those losses coming against top-50 opponents. He will now aim to reach his first tour-level final.

CategoryDetails
NationalityArgentina
Age26 (17 June 1999)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking67
Career High43 (18 August 2025)
Elo Ranking91 (Rating: 1719)
Tour level titles0

Verdict

The physical toll may prove decisive here. Rafael Jodar to win and Jodar to win in straight sets both look well aligned with the current situation.

Best Bet1: Rafael Jodar Match Winner @-200.00 at Stake.com - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Jodar 2-0 Correct Score @122.00 at Stake.com - 2 Units
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Jodar 2-0
Correct Score
@122.00 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
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Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

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