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Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa Predictions & Picks – Allen To Win UFC Fight Night Clash On Points
- Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa picks for Saturday, May 16
- UFC Fight Night is taking place at Meta APEX in Las Vegas
- Preview, predictions, stats & form
Arnold Allen (Getty Images)
- Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa Predictions & Picks
- Arnold Allen Form
- Melquizael Costa Form
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa Predictions & Picks
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa Predictions & Picks
Arnold Allen is tipped to win this main event fight decision.
Allen may have lost three of his last four fights, but they were against top-level talent and he has the all-round skillset and cardio to get the better of Melquizael Costa on the scorecards.
- Arnold Allen are 11-3 in his 14 fights in the UFC
- Arnold Allen has not lost a UFC fight to an opponent ranked outside of the top 10
- Arnold Allen’s last 4 fights have all gone the distance
- 3 of Melquizael Costa’s 5 career defeats have been via decision
Arnold Allen Form
Arnold Allen is the number seven ranked featherweight contender with a professional record of 20-4 (7 KOs, 4 Subs).
Allen debuted in the UFC in June 15 and quickly climbed the ladder as he won his first 10 fights inside the Octagon.
He marked his first outing with a submission victory over Alan Omer, and followed that up with decision victories over Yaotzin Mexa and Makwan Amirkhani.
The 32-year-old Englishman then backed up a third-round submission of Mads Burnell with unanimous decision successes over Jordan Rinaldi, Gilbert Melendez, Nik Lentz and Sodiq Yusuff as his stock continued to grow.
Allen appeared to be closing in on a title shot when he registered back-to-back TKO wins over Dan Hooker and Calvin Kattar in 2022, but his momentum stalled the following year.
His win streak was ended by a unanimous decision defeat to Max Holloway, and he then suffered a points loss to Movar Evloev.
‘Almighty’ snapped his losing sequence with a decision victory over Giga Chikadze in July 2024, but after a lengthy absence he made a losing return in January of this year as he was beaten on points by Jean Silva.
Melquizael Costa Form
Melquizael Costa is the number 12 ranked featherweight contender with a professional record of 26-7 (9 KOs, 8 Subs).
Costa signed with the UFC in late 2022 and made his debut the following year, losing via second-round submission to Thiago Moises.
He rebounded a few months later with a decision victory over Austin Lingo, only to quickly return to losing ways as he was knocked out by Steve Garcia in the second.
The 29-year-old Brazilian has not lost since though, sparking a six-fight win streak with submission successes against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and Andre Fili.
Costa then registered back-to-back decision wins over Christian Rodriguez and Julian Erosa, before closing out 2025 with a 74-second knockout of Morgan Charriere.
He then began 2026 with a first-round knockout of Dan Ige back in February.
Verdict
Melquizael Costa is in better form, but there needs to be some context added to Arnold Allen’s losses.
The Englishman has only lost to top level fighters and remains one of the top contenders in the division, so we are backing Allen in this one.
The Englishman has only lost to top level fighters and remains one of the top contenders in the division, so we are backing Allen in this one.
Allen by Decision
Method Of Victory
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Yes
Will The FIght Go The Distance?
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