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Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van Assche Betting Picks & Live Stream – Carabelli to Capitalize on Clay in Marrakech
- Carabelli has a strong 4-1 record in tour-level quarterfinals
- Van Assche has lost both previous tour-level quarterfinals
- Carabelli's clay-court experience offers a significant advantage
Camilo Ugo Carabelli plays a backhand against Sebastian Baez in Buenos Aires
(credit: Getty)
Fitness remains a concern for Camilo Ugo Carabelli after needing medical attention in each of his last two matches. However, that is also reflected in the generous odds, and on pure clay-court ability and experience, he still holds a clear edge in this matchup.
Carabelli Commands Quarterfinal Stage
- Ugo Carabelli is 4–1 in tour-level quarterfinals.
- He has won 12 of his last 15 matches vs outside Top 100 players.
- Luca Van Assche has lost both of his previous tour-level quarterfinals.
- He has lost nine of his last 12 matches vs Top 100 players.
HTH
This will be their first meeting.
Carabelli Survives Tough Three Setter
Camilo Ugo Carabelli secured a quarterfinal spot in Marrakech with a 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 win over Ignacio Buse. He saved seven of eight break points, which proved decisive.
He had a disappointing Australian swing but found momentum on South American clay, winning the Rosario Challenger and reaching the quarterfinal in Buenos Aires. His form dipped again afterward with only two wins in his next four events.
Carabelli holds a 4-1 record in tour-level quarterfinals. His only loss at this stage came recently in Buenos Aires against Sebastian Baez, and he will aim to go deeper this week.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Argentina |
| Age | 26 (17 June 1999) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 67 |
| Career High | 43 (18 August 2025) |
| Elo Ranking | 91 (Rating: 1719) |
| Tour level titles | 0 |
Van Assche Moves Into Last Eight
Luca Van Assche reached the quarterfinal in Marrakech with a 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 win over Tallon Griekspoor. He was broken twice but converted two of his six break-point chances.
The 21-year-old enjoyed strong results on the Challenger circuit earlier this year, winning titles in Quimper and Lille and reaching the quarterfinal in Pau. However, he had not recorded a tour-level win this season before this week.
Van Assche has previously reached two tour-level quarterfinals, both in 2023, losing to Alexander Zverev in Hamburg and Pierre-Hugues Herbert in Metz.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | France |
| Age | 21 (11 May 2004) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 109 |
| Career High | 63 (23 October 2023) |
| Elo Ranking | 100 (Rating: 1711) |
| Tour level titles | 0 |
Verdict
The price compensates for the risk, and the clay-court edge is significant. Carabelli to win stands out as a value play given the gap in experience and surface strength.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Match Winner
@-133.33 - 2 Units
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Carabelli -1.5
Handicap Games
@-116.28 - 2 Units
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