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Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez Betting Picks & Live Stream – Nakashima Brings the Form Edge at the US Open
- Nakashima is on career-best form, now ranked No. 17
- Baez has struggled in form and against Top 20 players
- Experts favor Nakashima to win in straight sets
Brandon Nakashima plays a forehand against Taylor Fritz in Mason
(credit: Getty)
Brandon Nakashima has been one of the standout performers of this year's US Open Series, reaching the semi-finals in Washington, the final at the Montreal Masters and the semi-finals in Cincinnati.
With the kind of form Nakashima has shown and his superior hard-court ability compared to Sebastian Baez, he looks very difficult to oppose here.
Nakashima Looks To Build Momentum At Flushing Meadows
- Brandon Nakashima has a 5–1 record in first-round matches at the US Open.
- He has won 11 of his last 14 matches against Top 50 players.
- Sebastian Baez has a 2–2 record in first-round matches at the US Open.
- He has a 0–6 record against Top 20 players at Grand Slam tournaments.
HTH - Brandon Nakashima leads 1-0
| Year | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wimbledon | R1 | Grass | Brandon Nakashima | 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 |
Nakashima Rides Career-Best Momentum into the US Open
Brandon Nakashima has impressive momentum on his side, reaching at least the semifinals in all three events he entered during the North American swing, including a runner-up finish in Montreal and a semifinal appearance in Cincinnati.
Before this stretch, he had never reached the quarterfinals at a Masters event in his career. These results helped him break into the Top 20 for the first time and recently achieve a career-high ranking of No. 17.
He also reached the final in Brisbane and the semifinals in Acapulco and at Queen's Club earlier this year. He now heads into this clash with a 5-1 record in first-round matches at the US Open.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Age | Born 03 August 2001 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 17 |
| Career High | No. 17 (24 August 2026) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 17 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 2 |
Sebastian Baez Searches for a Return to Form
Sebastian Baez produced some solid results earlier this year, reaching the final in Auckland, the semifinals in Buenos Aires and Santiago, and the third round at Indian Wells. However, his level has dropped in the following months.
He has played 14 events on tour from Miami through Winston-Salem last week and registered multiple wins only twice, reaching the quarterfinals in Bastad and Kitzbuhel, which highlights his struggles in recent months.
This is his fifth appearance at the US Open, and he has cleared the opening-round hurdle in two of his previous four appearances, including reaching the third round in 2023.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Argentina |
| Age | Born 28 December 2000 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 50 |
| Career High | No. 18 (24 June 2024) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 65 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 7 |
Verdict
Nakashima's current form, confidence and hard-court pedigree make him a strong pick in this matchup. Baez is a capable competitor, but Nakashima has been operating at a much higher level throughout the US Open Series and should have enough quality to control the contest.
Backing Brandon Nakashima to win in straight sets and cover the -1.5 sets handicap.
Nakashima 3-0
Correct Score
@111.00 - 2 Units
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Nakashima -1.5
Handicap Sets
@-277.78 - 2 Units
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