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Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka Betting Picks & Live Stream – Berrettini Favored in a Tricky Test at the US Open
- Both Berrettini & Wawrinka face fitness issues
- Berrettini's physical advantage likely decisive after a close start
- Best bets: tight first set, Berrettini to win overall
Matteo Berrettini during Day Six of the The Championships in London
(credit: Getty)
Matteo Berrettini and Stan Wawrinka are two former top-10 players who are both struggling with fitness issues at this stage of their careers.
However, Berrettini appears to be in the better physical position heading into this matchup, which should give him the edge over the course of the match. Wawrinka's experience and quality should still allow him to remain highly competitive in the early stages.
Berrettini Aims To Build Momentum At Flushing Meadows
- Berrettini has a 6–1 record in first-round matches at the US Open.
- He has a 7–2 record against players outside the Top 100 in 2026.
- Wawrinka has failed to clear the first round in five of his last six Grand Slam appearances.
- He is currently on a nine-match losing streak against Top 50 players.
HTH - Matteo Berrettini leads 1-0
| Year | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Wimbledon | R1 | Grass | Matteo Berrettini | 6-7(7), 7-6(16), 7-6(7), 7-6(5) |
Berrettini Looks to Build on His US Open Record
Matteo Berrettini has played two events during the North American swing so far, with both ending in early-round losses. He lost in the first round in Montreal to Mariano Navone and in the second round in Cincinnati to Jiri Lehecka.
The Italian has struggled with fitness issues in recent years, which significantly halted his progress, but he has shown some improvement this season. He dropped outside the Top 100 a few months ago, but his quarterfinal run at the French Open and third-round appearance at Wimbledon helped him return to the Top 50.
The 30-year-old heads into this clash with a 6-1 record in first-round matches at the US Open and will look to extend that record this week.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Italy |
| Age | Born 12 April 1996 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 43 |
| Career High | No. 6 (31 January 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 35 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 10 |
Wawrinka Brings His US Open Journey Toward a Close
Stan Wawrinka has been competitive in many matches but has struggled to close out sets and matches, leading to several early-round exits this year. He has failed to win a match in nine of his last 11 events.
He arrives at the US Open for what could be his final appearance at the tournament, making it an emotional occasion after announcing that he will retire at the end of the season. He will be looking to register a few encouraging wins and make this appearance memorable.
Wawrinka has made 18 main-draw appearances at the US Open and cleared the opening-round hurdle in 15 of them, including winning the title in 2016.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Switzerland |
| Age | Born 28 March 1985 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 127 |
| Career High | No. 3 (27 January 2014) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 134 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 16 |
Verdict
Berrettini's superior fitness should eventually tell, but Wawrinka has enough quality and experience to make the opening stages of this contest very competitive. That makes the first-set markets particularly appealing, with a tight set likely before Berrettini's physical advantage becomes more significant.
Backing over 10.5 games in the first set, Stan Wawrinka to win the first set and Matteo Berrettini to win the match offers an attractive betting combination.
Over 10.5
1st Set Total
@130.00 - 2 Units
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Stan Wawrinka
1st Set Winner
@166.00 - 2 Units
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Matteo Berrettini
Match Winner
@-400.00 - 3 Units
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