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Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Betting Picks & Live Stream – Clay Conditions Open the Door for Cobolli in Madrid
- Flavio Cobolli is in great form on clay, winning 7 of 9 matches
- Daniil Medvedev, despite tough losses, shows resilience with past titles
- Cobolli poses an underdog threat in a promising Madrid match
Flavio Cobolli plays a forehand against Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in Madrid
(credit: Getty)
Flavio Cobolli has won 7 of his 9 matches on clay this year and is proving to be a very capable performer on this surface. He also recently reached the final in Munich, showing he can compete at a high level. Against Daniil Medvedev, these conditions give him a real chance to challenge and even take control at times.
Underdog Challenge In Madrid
- Daniil Medvedev has reached only two clay quarterfinals in the last two years, both in Madrid.
- He is on a six-match losing streak against Top 20 players on clay.
- Flavio Cobolli is 0–2 in R16 matches at Masters events.
- He has a 2–17 career record against Top 10 players.
HTH - Daniil Medvedev leads 2-0
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Beijing | Hard | QF | Medvedev | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 2024 | US Open | Hard | 3R | Medvedev | 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 |
Medvedev Responds After Tough Losses
Daniil Medvedev advanced to the fourth round in Madrid with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. Despite dropping serve twice, he stayed in control throughout and finished the match in straight sets.
This was an important response from the Russian after a few disappointing losses, including defeats to Francisco Cerundolo in Miami and a double-bagel loss to Matteo Berrettini in Monte Carlo.
Even with those setbacks, Medvedev has enjoyed a strong season, winning titles in Brisbane and Dubai, reaching the Indian Wells final, and making the fourth round at the Australian Open. Those results pushed him back into the top 10.
Since the start of 2024, he has played eight round-of-16 matches on clay at Masters level or higher and lost six of them. Notably, both of his wins at this stage came in Madrid.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Russia |
| Age | 30 (11 February 1996) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 10 |
| Career High | 1 (28 February 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | 6 (Rating: 2006) |
| Tour level titles | 23 |
Cobolli Continues Strong Clay Momentum
Flavio Cobolli moved into the fourth round in Madrid after defeating Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 6-3, 6-2 in straight sets. Earlier this week, he also came back from a set down to beat Ugo Carabelli in the opening round.
The Italian is carrying his strong Munich form into Madrid. Last week, he won four straight-set matches there, including a notable victory over Alexander Zverev, before losing to Ben Shelton in the final.
The 23-year-old had a slow start to the season, but since February he has made major progress with the title in Acapulco, his first hard-court title, a semifinal in Delray Beach, and now the Munich run. Those results helped him reach a new career-high ranking of No. 13.
Cobolli has played only two round-of-16 matches at Masters level, both on hard courts against top-10 players, and lost both in three sets. On clay, he now has a better opportunity to push deeper into the tournament.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Italy |
| Age | 23 (6 May 2002) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 13 |
| Career High | 13 (30 March 2026) |
| Elo Ranking | 29 (Rating: 1863) |
| Tour level titles | 3 |
Verdict
Cobolli’s current form and comfort on clay make him a dangerous underdog in this matchup. Backing Cobolli to win, over 2.5 sets, and over 21.5 games all line up well with the expectation of a close and competitive battle.
Flavio Cobolli
Match Winner
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Over 2.5
Total Sets
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Over 21.5
Total Games
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