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Matteo Berrettini vs Adrian Mannarino Betting Tips & Live Stream – Berrettini Favoured at Indian Wells

james-smith
By James Smith
04 Mar 2026
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James Smith 04 Mar 2026
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  • Berrettini seeks a hard court win since Metz 2025
  • Mannarino leads head-to-head 2-0 against Berrettini
  • Berrettini's confidence grows despite earlier season losses
Matteo Berrettini
Matteo Berrettini returns a shot to Ignacio Buse in Rio de Janeiro (credit: Getty)
Matteo Berrettini may not be at his absolute best yet, but he’s gaining confidence and remains reliable enough to capitalize on Adrian Mannarino’s unpredictability. 

With the stronger weapons and more dependable game in this matchup, Berrettini should find a way through. Backing Berrettini to win and cover the –2.5 games handicap looks the right play.

Berrettini Seeks Hard Court Win

  • Matteo Berrettini is seeking his first hard court win since Metz 2025. 
  • He holds a 3–3 record in opening round matches at Indian Wells. 
  • Adrian Mannarino has a 2–5 record in opening round matches this year across all levels. 
  • He has a 3–4 record against top 100 players this year.

HTH - Adrian Mannarino leads 2-0

Year Event Surface Round Winner Score
2025 Shanghai Hard 1R Mannarino 7-5, 7-6
2018 Australian Open Hard 1R Mannarino 6-4, 6-4, 6-4

Berrettini Hoping for Turnaround

Matteo Berrettini skipped the Australian swing to focus on recovery. He returned through the South American clay swing to regain form. 

He played three events there but won only three matches. All three losses came against lower ranked opponents as he continues to search for his usual level. 

Berrettini now makes his seventh appearance at Indian Wells Tennis Garden. He holds a 3-3 record in opening round matches, most recently reaching the third round in 2025.

Category Details
Nationality Italy
Age 29 (12 April 1996)
Plays Right-handed
World Ranking 66
Career High 6 (31 January 2022)
Elo Ranking 42 (Rating: 1821)
Tour level titles 10

Desert Test Awaits Mannarino

Adrian Mannarino had a poor start to the season with four straight first round exits. He responded well by reaching the final in Montpellier, his first tour level final in two years. 

However, he could not build on that momentum. Early exits in Dallas and Acapulco followed, bringing him back to inconsistent form. 

Mannarino now makes his 12th main draw appearance at Indian Wells Tennis Garden. He has cleared the opening round in seven of his previous 11 appearances.

Category Details
Nationality France
Age 37 (29 June 1988)
Plays Left-handed
World Ranking 48
Career High 17 (29 January 2024)
Elo Ranking 97 (Rating: 1709)
Tour level titles 5

Verdict

Berrettini’s growing confidence and superior firepower should be enough to exploit Mannarino’s unpredictability. Berrettini to win and cover the –2.5 games handicap is the pick.

Best Bet1: Matteo Berrettini Match Winner @-250.00 at Stake.com - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Berrettini -2.5 Handicup @-163.93 at Stake.com - 2 Units
Matteo Berrettini
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Berrettini -2.5
Handicup
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