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Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Betting Picks & Live Stream – The American Can Challenge De Minaur in London
- De Minaur is strong on grass but has shown recent inconsistencies
- Nakashima is in form and suits the grass surface, making him a live underdog
- Backing Nakashima to win a set or betting on a close match offers value
Brandon Nakashima plays a forehand against Ignacio Buse in London
(credit: Getty)
Alex de Minaur is going through a somewhat difficult spell by his usual standards, making it hard to fully trust him at short odds despite his strong grass-court record. While he has still managed to put together results, his performances have not always been convincing, leaving the door open for dangerous opponents to stay competitive.
Brandon Nakashima enjoys playing on grass, possesses a strong serve, and has the weapons needed to trouble De Minaur in these conditions.
A Battle For The Semifinals
- Alex de Minaur holds a 6–3 record in grass-court quarterfinals.
- He owns a 13–7 record against Top 50 players in 2026.
- Brandon Nakashima has a 0–3 record in grass-court quarterfinals.
- He holds a 2–20 career record against Top 10 players.
HTH - Tied at 1-1
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Washington | Hard | QF | De Minaur | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2021 | Antwerp | Indoor Hard | 1R | Nakashima | 6-4, 6-0 |
De Minaur Cruises Into Last Eight
Alex de Minaur moved into the quarterfinals at Queen's Club after defeating Denis Shapovalov in straight sets, 6-4, 6-1. It was a much more comfortable performance than his opening-round match against Gabriel Diallo, where he had to come through a series of tight sets.
This is De Minaur's third quarterfinal appearance at Queen's Club, and he converted both of his previous runs at this stage into semifinal appearances. He defeated Marin Cilic in 2021 and Adrian Mannarino in 2023 to progress further in the tournament.
The Australian endured a difficult spell between Acapulco and Rome, winning only four matches across seven tournaments during that stretch. However, he has rediscovered his level in recent weeks, reaching the semifinals in Hamburg and the final in 's-Hertogenbosch.
De Minaur holds a 6-3 record in grass-court quarterfinals and has lost only one of his last seven matches at this stage on the surface, underlining his strong record in the latter rounds of grass-court events.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Australia |
| Age | 27 (17 February 1999) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| Height / Weight | 183 cm / 69 kg |
| World Ranking | 6 |
| Career High | 6 (15 July 2024) |
| Elo Ranking | 10 (Rating: 1966) |
| Tour level titles | 11 |
Nakashima Continues Strong Week in London
Brandon Nakashima reached the quarterfinals at Queen's Club after recording two comfortable wins this week. He defeated Marton Fucsovics 6-3, 6-3 in the opening round and followed it up with a 6-3, 6-2 victory over Ignacio Buse.
This is the fifth grass-court quarterfinal of his career and his second at Queen's Club. He is still searching for his first quarterfinal win on the surface, while his only grass-court semifinal appearance came in Stuttgart last year after receiving a walkover at this stage.
The 24-year-old started the season strongly by reaching the final in Brisbane, but his level dipped in the following months. He recorded multiple wins at only one of his next 10 tournaments before regaining some confidence with a third-round run at Roland Garros.
Nakashima owns a 10-13 record in tour-level quarterfinals and has won both of his quarterfinal appearances in 2026. He will be hoping to continue that trend and finally break through at this stage on grass.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | USA |
| Age | 24 (3 August 2001) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| Height / Weight | 185 cm / 77 kg |
| World Ranking | 32 |
| Career High | 29 (5 May 2025) |
| Elo Ranking | 43 (Rating: 1812) |
| Tour level titles | 2 |
Verdict
Given De Minaur's recent inconsistency and Nakashima's ability to hold serve and keep sets close, the value appears to be on the American. Backing Nakashima to win a set, over 22.5 games in the match, a tiebreaker in the match, and a small punt on Nakashima to cause an upset all look like attractive options.
Over 22.5
Total Games
@-144.93 - 2 Units
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Nakashima +1.5
Handicap Sets
@-138.89 - 2 Units
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