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Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik Betting Picks & Live Stream – De Minaur Holds Major Edge Over Mensik at ATP Roland Garros
- De Minaur leads Mensik 4-0 in their previous meetings
- Mensik is struggling with fitness after a tough five-set win
- De Minaur is favored to win comfortably, likely in straight sets
Alex De Minaur is seen in action against Toby Samuel in Paris
(credit: Getty)
Alex de Minaur holds a complete psychological edge in this matchup against Jakub Mensik, having won all five of their previous meetings while conceding just one set in total. Adding to that advantage, Mensik is coming off a massively gruelling five-set battle in which he was visibly struggling physically, dealing with cramping issues and even collapsing on court by the end of the match.
De Minaur Eyes Progress
- Alex de Minaur has not lost a third-round Grand Slam match since 2022.
- He has lost eight of his last 15 matches against players outside the Top 20.
- Jakub Mensik holds a 1–4 record in third-round Grand Slam matches.
- He has lost five of his last six matches against Top 10 players.
HTH - Alex De Mainur leads 4-0
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | United Cup | Hard | RR | De Minaur | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 2025 | Beijing | Hard | QF | De Minaur | 4-1 (ret.) |
| 2025 | Rotterdam | Indoor Hard | R16 | De Minaur | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Vienna | Indoor Hard | QF | De Minaur | 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
Hamburg Run Sparks Paris Progress
Alex de Minaur reached the third round after beating Toby Samuel in straight sets before receiving a walkover from Alexander Blockx in the second round. The extra day off means the Australian arrives in the third round with plenty left in the tank.
This is already a satisfying result for De Minaur given his history in Paris. Before this year, he had won only one of his five second-round matches at Roland Garros, with last year's quarterfinal run standing as his best result at the tournament.
After a strong start to the season, his results slowed down during the spring. Between Acapulco and Rome, he managed just four match wins across seven tournaments before getting back on track with a semifinal run in Hamburg last week.
De Minaur owns a strong 13-5 record in Grand Slam third-round matches and is currently on a 10-match winning streak at this stage. His last third-round defeat at a major came at the US Open in 2022.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Australia |
| Age | 27 (17 February 1999) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 7 |
| Career High | 6 (15 July 2024) |
| Elo Ranking | 8 (Rating: 1979) |
| Tour level titles | 11 |
Mensik Reaches New French Open Milestone
Jakub Mensik survived a marathon five-set battle against Mariano Navone, winning 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 to reach the third round. The Czech showed remarkable resilience in the deciding set, saving all nine break points he faced to keep his campaign alive.
This is Mensik's best result at Roland Garros. In his only previous appearance here, he fell in five sets in the second round to Henrique Rocha last year.
The 19-year-old made a strong start to the season, reaching three quarterfinals or better and the fourth round of the Australian Open. However, his form dipped after the Middle East swing, and an early title-defence exit contributed to his drop out of the Top 20.
Mensik will hope this win can spark a turnaround on clay. He enters the third round with a 1-4 record at this stage in Grand Slams, with his only victory coming at the Australian Open earlier this year.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Czech Republic |
| Age | 20 (1 September 2005) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 27 |
| Career High | 12 (02 March 2026) |
| Elo Ranking | 23 (Rating: 1898) |
| Tour level titles | 2 |
Verdict
All the factors surrounding Mensik’s fitness currently place him under major scrutiny heading into this contest and leaves De Minaur in a very comfortable position to continue his dominance in this matchup. Backing De Minaur to cover the -5.5 games handicap, the -1.5 sets handicap, and to win in straight sets all look like strong options here.
De Minaur -5.5
Handicap Games
@-119.05 - 2 Units
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De Minaur -1.5
Handicap Sets
@-204.08 - 2 Units
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De Minaur 3-0
Correct Score
@128.00 - 2 Units
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