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Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Betting Picks & Live Stream – Experience Favors Rublev at ATP Roland Garros
- Mensik leads Rublev 2-0 H2H, but faces stamina questions in best-of-five
- Rublev has more Grand Slam experience and a steady 2024 season
- Prediction: Rublev favored to win and to cover -1.5 sets handicap
Andrey Rublev reacts against Nuno Borges in Paris
(credit: Getty)
Jakub Mensik is certainly dangerous enough to beat almost anyone in a best-of-three format, especially against an inconsistent player like Andrey Rublev, who can sometimes self-destruct and lose control of matches. However, best-of-five tennis remains a very different challenge for Mensik, who still has plenty to prove physically and has never previously reached the second week of a Grand Slam.
Rublev Targets Deep Progress
- Jakub Mensik is looking to reach his maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal.
- He has lost nine of his last 13 matches against Top 20 players.
- Andrey Rublev holds a 2–1 record in fourth-round matches at the French Open.
- He owns a 21–7 record against players outside the Top 20.
HTH - Jakub Mensik leads 2-0
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Shanghai | Hard | 2R | Mensik | 7-6(7), 6-4, 6-3 |
| 2024 | Doha | Hard | QF | Mensik | 6-4, 7-6(6) |
Mensik Stuns De Minaur After Bagel Set
Jakub Mensik pulled off a huge upset by defeating Alex de Minaur from a set down, 0-6, 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, to reach the fourth round at the French Open. After being bageled in the opening set, he completely turned the match around and dominated the final three sets.
It was another impressive effort from the Czech, who had already survived a five-set battle against Mariano Navone in the previous round. He now stands one win away from reaching his first Grand Slam quarterfinal.
Mensik has shown he can produce deep runs at the biggest events, but recurring fitness problems have often interrupted his progress. He started the season strongly by winning the Auckland title, but his level gradually dipped after suffering an injury at the Australian Open.
Before arriving in Paris, he failed to win multiple matches in four of his last five tournaments, including an early exit during his Miami title defence, which pushed him outside the Top 20 rankings.
This is only his second Round of 16 appearance at a Grand Slam. Earlier this year he reached this stage at the Australian Open but was forced to withdraw from the tournament due to an abdominal injury.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Czech Republic |
| Age | 20 (1 September 2005) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 27 |
| Career High | 12 (02 March 2026) |
| Elo Ranking | 23 (Rating: 1898) |
| Tour level titles | 2 |
Rublev Continues Steady Season
Andrey Rublev came through three tight sets against Nuno Borges to reach the fourth round at the French Open, winning 7-5, 7-6, 7-6. He fired 12 aces and converted three of the 10 break-point chances he created.
This is Rublev's fourth Round of 16 appearance at Roland Garros. He converted his first two appearances at this stage into quarterfinal runs, but his most recent fourth-round match here ended in a loss to Jannik Sinner last year.
The Russian has put together a solid season overall. Apart from a few disappointing results during the North American swing, he has reached at least the quarterfinals five times this year, helping him move closer to a return to the Top 10.
Rublev owns a 10-7 record in Grand Slam fourth-round matches. However, he is currently on a four-match losing streak at this stage and has not reached a major quarterfinal since the Australian Open in 2024.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Russia |
| Age | 28 (20 October 1997) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 13 |
| Career High | 5 (13 September 2021) |
| Elo Ranking | 19 (Rating: 1905) |
| Tour level titles | 17 |
Verdict
In terms of experience, physical endurance, and ability to handle long Grand Slam battles, Rublev holds a significant edge here and looks attractively priced because of that. Backing Rublev to win and also to cover the -1.5 sets handicap both make plenty of sense in this matchup.
Andrey Rublev
Match Winner
@-126.58 - 2 Units
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Rublev -1.5
Handicap Sets
@137.00 - 2 Units
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