Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon Betting Picks & Live Stream – Value Appears to Be on Arnaldi at ATP Roland Garros

james-smith
41 minutes ago
James Smith 41 minutes ago
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  • Arnaldi defeated Tsitsipas and regained form, heading into the third round
  • Collignon upset Shelton but is less experienced at Grand Slam level
  • Backing Arnaldi to win is recommended due to his experience and resilience
Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo Arnaldi plays a backhand return to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Paris (credit: Getty)
Raphael Collignon is an extremely dangerous and talented player who is enjoying an excellent run at the French Open this week. Even so, it still feels a bit too early for him to be priced as such a strong favorite against a much more established player like Matteo Arnaldi, who has also rediscovered both his form and fitness in recent weeks. 

Arnaldi is not an easy player to put away, especially in a best-of-five format against a physically fragile opponent like Collignon, who still lacks experience at this level.

Arnaldi Eyes Bigger Stage

  • Matteo Arnaldi holds a 2–1 record in third-round Grand Slam matches. 
  • He has won nine of his last 10 matches on clay. 
  • Raphael Collignon has a 0–1 record in third-round Grand Slam matches. 
  • He is currently on a 15-match winning streak against players outside the Top 100.

HTH

This will be their first meeting.

Arnaldi Knocks Out Tsitsipas in Paris

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in four sets, 7-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-2, to reach the third round at the French Open. After splitting the opening two sets, Arnaldi took control of the match and did not face a single break point in the final two sets. 

This is only the second time Arnaldi has registered multiple main-draw wins at Roland Garros in four appearances. He previously achieved that in 2024 when he reached the fourth round. 

The Italian suffered a foot injury early in the season which severely disrupted his progress. He failed to win a main-draw match at any level until a few weeks ago when he lifted the title at the Cagliari Challenger. 

He carried that confidence into Rome, where he reached the third round, and has continued the run in Paris. With these results, Arnaldi is set to return to the Top 100 after dropping out earlier this season. He heads into the third round with a 2-1 record in Grand Slam third-round matches.

CategoryDetails
NationalityItaly
Age25 (22 February 2001)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking104
Career High29 (12 August 2024)
Elo Ranking68 (Rating: 1763)
Tour level titles1

Collignon Stuns Shelton in Paris

Raphael Collignon moved into the third round after a straight-sets upset over Ben Shelton, 6-4, 7-5, 6-4. He won 82 percent of his first-serve points and did not face a single break point during the match. 

The Belgian has put together a solid season so far, reaching three Challenger finals while also making the third round in Miami and the quarterfinals in Brisbane. Those results helped him climb to a career-high ranking of No. 62. 

This is only the second time Collignon has reached the third round of a Grand Slam. His previous appearance at this stage came at the US Open last year, where he lost to Jiri Lehecka in straight sets.

CategoryDetails
NationalityBelgium
Age24 (13 January 2002)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking62
Career High59 (16 February 2026)
Elo Ranking24 (Rating: 1894)
Tour level titles0

Verdict

Considering Collignon’s physical vulnerabilities and lack of experience in long Grand Slam battles, Arnaldi looks like a very appealing value option here. Backing Arnaldi to win outright and Arnaldi to win over 1.5 sets both stand out as attractive plays in this matchup.

Best Bet1: Matteo Arnaldi Match Winner @177.00 at Stake.com - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Arnaldi +1.5 Handicap Sets @-120.48 at Stake.com - 2 Units
Matteo Arnaldi
Match Winner
@177.00 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet at Stake.com
Arnaldi +1.5
Handicap Sets
@-120.48 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet at Stake.com

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