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Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Betting Picks & Live Stream – Underdog Angles Appeal on Arnaldi at ATP Roland Garros
- Arnaldi returns from injury and brings strong clay-court form
- Tsitsipas is out of form, slipping in rankings and confidence
- Arnaldi is a top-value underdog pick to upset or win 1.5+ sets
Matteo Arnaldi celebrates against Rafael Jodar in Rome
(credit: Getty)
Matteo Arnaldi has done an excellent job recovering from the fitness problems that disrupted the early part of his season and has steadily built strong momentum on clay in recent weeks. With that upward trend behind him, he should prove to be a very difficult opponent for Stefanos Tsitsipas, whose confidence appears to be at a very low point right now as he continues to slide towards a potential top-100 exit and looks far from his best level.
Arnaldi Seeks Major Upset
- Matteo Arnaldi holds a 3–3 record in second-round Grand Slam matches.
- He owns a 6–7 record against players outside the Top 50 this year.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas has a 6–2 record in third-round matches at Roland Garros.
- He holds a 10–1 record against players outside the Top 100 in the last 12 months.
HTH - Stefanos Tsitsipas leads 1-0
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | French Open | Clay | R16 | Tsitsipas | 3-6, 7-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
Arnaldi Keeps Positive Clay Run Alive
Matteo Arnaldi defeated Tallon Griekspoor in four sets, 6-7, 6-3, 7-6, 6-3, to reach the second round at the French Open. Arnaldi let four set points slip in the opening set but responded strongly, later saving four set points in the third set in a key moment of the match.
The Italian has struggled with recurring foot issues in recent years, and those problems once again disrupted his progress earlier this season. He failed to win a main-draw match until Madrid in April.
Arnaldi has since rebuilt confidence with a title run in Cagliari before carrying that momentum into Rome, where he reached the third round.
He owns a 3-3 record in Grand Slam second-round matches. One of those victories came here at Roland Garros, where he made the fourth round in 2024.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Italy |
| Age | 25 (22 February 2001) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 104 |
| Career High | 29 (12 August 2024) |
| Elo Ranking | 68 (Rating: 1763) |
| Tour level titles | 0 |
Greek Moves Through in Paris
Stefanos Tsitsipas moved into the second round after Alexandre Müller retired while trailing by a set and 0-3 in the match. It was only the third time Tsitsipas cleared the opening-round hurdle on clay this season from six tournaments played.
The Greek has shown flashes of encouraging form this year, but inconsistency has continued to hurt his results. Several early exits during the season pushed him outside the Top 70 in the rankings.
Tsitsipas holds a strong 6-2 record in second-round matches at Roland Garros. He has converted four of those wins into at least quarterfinal appearances, including a semifinal run in 2020 and a runner-up finish in 2021.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Greece |
| Age | 27 (12 August 1998) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 79 |
| Career High | 3 (09 August 2021) |
| Elo Ranking | 34 (Rating: 1849) |
| Tour level titles | 13 |
Verdict
At the current odds, Arnaldi looks like a very appealing underdog option in this matchup. Backing Arnaldi to cause the upset and Arnaldi to win over 1.5 sets both stand out as attractive plays here.
Matteo Arnaldi
Match Winner
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Arnaldi -1.5
Handicap Sets
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