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Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Betting Picks & Live Stream – Arnaldi Could Have the Edge in This Italian Clash at Roland Garros
- Berrettini returns to French Open QF, aiming for another deep run
- Arnaldi arrives with momentum after heroic five-set comebacks
- Backing Arnaldi to win, especially with a -1.5 sets handicap, offers strong value
Matteo Arnaldi in action against Frances Tiafoe in Paris
(credit: Getty)
Matteo Arnaldi must be arriving into this match with sky-high belief and momentum after pulling off back-to-back marathon five-set wins in the previous rounds. The only genuine concern surrounding him right now is the physical fatigue after spending so many hours on court over the last few days, but that weakness may not get exposed too heavily against a serve-reliant opponent like Matteo Berrettini.
Italian Duel Takes Centerstage
- Matteo Berrettini holds a 3–3 record in tour-level quarterfinals.
- He owns a perfect 5–0 record against players outside the Top 100 this year.
- Matteo Arnaldi has a 2–5 record against fellow Italians in tour-level events.
- This is the first tour-level quarterfinal of his career.
HTH
This will be their first meeting.
Berrettini Returns to French Open Quarterfinals
Matteo Berrettini advanced to the quarterfinals after defeating Juan Manuel Cerundolo in straight sets, 6-3, 7-6, 7-6. He won 84 percent of his first-serve points and dropped serve only once during the match.
It was an impressive and much-needed performance from the Italian, who had spent more than five hours on court in his previous match against Francisco Comesana. Despite that physical effort, he looked fresh and controlled most of the contest.
This is Berrettini's second French Open quarterfinal. His previous appearance came in 2021, when he reached this stage before losing to Novak Djokovic in four sets. This time, he faces a more manageable opportunity to move even further.
The 30-year-old has battled injury problems throughout the last few seasons, which significantly slowed his progress. He had not produced many deep runs this year either, with his best results before Paris being third-round appearances in Miami and Monte Carlo and a quarterfinal in Rio de Janeiro. Those struggles pushed him outside the Top 100.
With this run, Berrettini is set to return to the Top 50 next week. He owns a 3-3 record in Grand Slam quarterfinals and has alternated wins and losses in his six appearances. His most recent quarterfinal ended in defeat to Casper Ruud at the US Open in 2022.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Italy |
| Age | 30 (12 April 1996) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 105 |
| Career High | 6 (31 January 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | 50 (Rating: 1806) |
| Tour level titles | 10 |
Italian Produces Another Stunning Comeback
Matteo Arnaldi defeated Frances Tiafoe in five sets to reach the quarterfinals at the French Open, 7-6, 6-7, 3-6, 7-6, 6-4. He trailed 1-4 in the fourth set before producing a remarkable comeback and eventually closing out the match in the decider.
It followed a similar pattern to his previous victory, where he also recovered from a two-sets-to-one deficit in a match that lasted more than five hours. Earlier in the tournament, he also scored an impressive win over Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The Italian endured a difficult start to the season, failing to win a main-draw match in his first eight tournaments. That slump pushed him outside the Top 100 in the rankings and left him searching for confidence.
His fortunes changed at the right time. Arnaldi won the Cagliari Challenger title, followed it with a third-round run in Rome, and has now carried that momentum into a quarterfinal appearance in Paris. Those results have moved him close to a return to the Top 50.
This is the first Grand Slam quarterfinal of Arnaldi's career. He heads into the match with a 3-5 record in tour-level quarterfinals, while his clay-court quarterfinal record stands at 1-3.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Italy |
| Age | 25 (22 February 2001) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 104 |
| Career High | 29 (12 August 2024) |
| Elo Ranking | 68 (Rating: 1763) |
| Tour level titles | 1 |
Verdict
With the confidence and momentum Arnaldi currently carries, there appears to be strong value in backing him as the underdog to continue this impressive run. Backing Arnaldi to win and Arnaldi to cover the -1.5 sets handicap both make strong appeal for this matchup.
Matteo Arnaldi
Match Winner
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Arnaldi -1.5
Handicap Sets
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