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Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong Betting Picks & Live Stream – De Jong to Keep It Close in Madrid
- Rafael Jodar boasts an 8-1 clay record in 2026, but fatigue could be a factor
- Jodar, 19, rapidly rose into the top 50 after starting 2025 outside the top 900
- Jesper de Jong, despite recent struggles, finds Madrid's conditions favorable
Jesper De Jong plays a forehand against Juan Manuel Cerundolo in Barcelona
(credit: Getty)
Rafael Jodar is in sensational form right now, having won eight of his last nine matches on clay this year, including a title run in Marrakech. However, there are concerns about potential fatigue after a deep run in Barcelona last week, which could open a small window of opportunity for his opponent.
Jodar Carries Clay Momentum
- Rafael Jodar is 8–1 on clay this year.
- He has a 23–2 record vs outside Top 50 players in 2026.
- Jesper de Jong has reached at least the third round in both previous Masters appearances.
- He has a 3–6 record vs Top 50 players this year.
HTH
This will be their first meeting.
Jodar Emerging As Rising Star
Rafael Jodar arrives in strong form on clay, having won the Marrakech title and followed it with a semifinal run in Barcelona.
The 19-year-old began the 2025 season outside the top 900 but made rapid progress on the Challenger circuit, reaching eight semifinals or better to finish the year inside the top 200.
He made his tour-level debut at the Australian Open earlier this year and has since surged into the top 50 within a few months, marking a remarkable rise.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Spain |
| Age | 19 (17 September 2006) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 42 |
| Career High | 42 (20 April 2026) |
| Elo Ranking | 18 (Rating: 1926) |
| Tour level titles | 1 |
De Jong Seeks Form Revival
Jesper de Jong broke into the top 100 last year after consistent results, including three quarterfinal or better finishes and third-round runs at the Rome and Shanghai Masters.
However, he has struggled to maintain that level in 2026. Across 11 events, his only standout result is a semifinal in the Murcia Challenger, with most other tournaments ending in early exits.
This is his second appearance in Madrid, having fallen in qualifying in 2025. He enters this match with a 2-0 record in first-round matches at Masters level.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Netherlands |
| Age | 25 (31 May 2000) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 109 |
| Career High | 71 (05 January 2026) |
| Elo Ranking | 154 (Rating: 1632) |
| Tour level titles | 0 |
Verdict
Jesper de Jong has a game well suited to the altitude conditions in Madrid, which should help him stay competitive. Expect him to keep things close, with over 8.5 games for de Jong, a possible tiebreak, and over 20.5 total games all looking like strong angles.
Over 20.5
Total Games
@-116.28 - 2 Units
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Over 8.5
Total de Jong
@-121.95 - 2 Units
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Yes
Tiebreak to be played
@172.00 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
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