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Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Betting Picks & Live Stream – Carreno Busta Has the Tools to Stay Competitive at ATP Roland Garros
- Jodar seeks first Grand Slam quarterfinal but has shown physical fatigue
- Carreno Busta, experienced despite recent injuries, is a strong underdog
- Backing Carreno Busta with game or set handicaps is recommended
Pablo Carreno Busta plays a backhand return to Jiri Lehecka in Paris
(credit: Getty)
Rafael Jodar is flying at the moment in terms of results and momentum, but he has shown signs of physical vulnerability and lack of Grand Slam experience in the previous two rounds, where he struggled physically at different stages of the matches. That is something an experienced player like Pablo Carreno Busta can certainly look to exploit.
Carreno Busta himself has looked in excellent touch throughout this campaign and possesses more than enough quality and experience to keep this contest competitive.
Carreno Busta Stands Firm
- Jodar is looking to reach her maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal.
- She has won 18 of her 21 matches on clay this year.
- Pablo Carreno Busta holds a 2–1 record in Round of 16 matches at the French Open.
- He has a 1–6 record against Top 50 players since 2023.
HTH
This will be their first meeting.
Jodar Edges Closer to Another Quarterfinal
Rafael Jodar moved into the fourth round after surviving a five-set thriller against Alex Michelsen, 7-6, 6-7, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4. He dropped serve six times but converted eight of the 16 break-point chances he created during the match.
The Spaniard has shown plenty of resilience in his last two matches against James Duckworth and Michelsen. However, the physical toll is beginning to show after spending long periods on court in both encounters.
Jodar is now one win away from reaching his fifth consecutive quarterfinal on tour. All four of his previous quarterfinal runs came on clay, including the title in Marrakech and quarterfinal appearances in Madrid and Rome.
It has been a remarkable rise for the 19-year-old, who had no tour-level experience before 2026 and had not recorded multiple wins at this level before Miami. With this run in Paris, he is now closing in on a Top 25 ranking.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Spain |
| Age | 19 (17 September 2006) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 29 |
| Career High | 29 (18 May 2026) |
| Elo Ranking | 7 (Rating: 1983) |
| Tour level titles | 1 |
Carreno Busta Turns Back the Clock in Paris
Pablo Carreno Busta reached the fourth round at the French Open after upsetting Thiago Agustin Tirante in four sets, 7-6, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4. He fired 10 aces and saved five of the nine break points he faced during the match.
This is Carreno Busta's fourth Round of 16 appearance at Roland Garros. He won two of his previous three matches at this stage, reaching the quarterfinals in 2017 and 2020, while his other appearance ended in a loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2021.
It is another strong effort from the Spaniard, who has dealt with recurring fitness problems and was forced to retire twice in recent months. He also handed a walkover in the Valencia Challenger shortly before the French Open began.
Carreno Busta won only two main-draw matches during the first two months of the season, but his results improved once the clay swing started. He reached the finals in Murcia and Alicante and the quarterfinals in Valencia, all on the Challenger circuit.
He owns a 4-5 record in Grand Slam fourth-round matches. His most recent quarterfinal appearance at this level came here at Roland Garros in 2020, and he entered this year's event on a three-match losing streak at this stage.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Spain |
| Age | 34 (12 July 1991) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 89 |
| Career High | 10 (11 September 2017) |
| Elo Ranking | 63 (Rating: 1773) |
| Tour level titles | 7 |
Verdict
With the pressure now building on Jodar as one of the favorites for the title, Carreno Busta has opportunities to challenge him both physically and mentally during the match. Backing Carreno Busta +7.5 games handicap, Carreno Busta to win over 14.5 games, and Carreno Busta +1.5 sets handicap all make strong appeal for this matchup.
Busta +7.5
Handicap Games
@-172.41 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
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Over 14.5
Total Busta
@-144.93 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
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Busta +1.5
Handicap Sets
@142.00 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS
Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.
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