Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur Betting Picks & Live Stream – Jodar to Keep Momentum Rolling in Madrid

james-smith
2 hours ago
James Smith 2 hours ago
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  • Rafael Jodar is on a winning streak with recent success on clay
  • Alex de Minaur's form has dipped after a strong start to the season
  • Given Jodar's momentum, he is favored to win the Madrid matchup
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar plays a backhand shot against Jesper de Jong in Madrid (credit: Getty)
Alex de Minaur comes in at an appealing price against an inexperienced opponent like Rafael Jodar, but he is not performing anywhere near his best level in recent weeks. In contrast, Jodar is in red-hot form and also benefits from strong home support.

Jodar Steps Up Again

  • Rafael Jodar has won 9 of his 10 clay matches this year. 
  • He is 0–2 against Top 20 players in his career. 
  • Alex de Minaur has cleared the opening round in clay Masters events in 11 of his last 13 appearances. 
  • He has an 8–4 record vs Top 50 players in 2026.

HTH

This will be their first meeting

Jodar Continues Rapid Rise

Rafael Jodar moved into the second round in Madrid with a 2-6, 7-5, 6-4 comeback win over Jesper de Jong. He lost all his service games in the opening set but recovered strongly as the match went on. 

The 19-year-old has made rapid progress in just four months. After making his tour-level debut at the Australian Open, he earned multiple wins in Miami, won the title in Marrakech, and reached the semifinal in Barcelona the following week. 

Those results helped him climb more than 100 places in the rankings this season, reaching a career-high of No. 42. He now looks to continue that rise in Madrid.

CategoryDetails
NationalitySpain
Age19 (17 September 2006)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking42
Career High42 (20 April 2026)
Elo Ranking18 (Rating: 1926)
Tour level titles1

De Minaur Looks To Rebound

Alex de Minaur is coming off a disappointing second-round loss in Barcelona, where he fell to Hamad Medjedovic in straight sets, reflecting his recent struggles on tour. 

After a strong start to the season with an Australian Open quarterfinal and the Rotterdam title, his form has dipped sharply. He has managed multiple wins in only one of his last five events, with all five recent losses coming against lower-ranked opponents. 

The 27-year-old has played Madrid six times, advancing past the opening round in four of them. His best results were fourth-round runs in 2021 and 2025.

CategoryDetails
NationalityAustralia
Age27 (17 February 1999)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking8
Career High6 (15 July 2024)
Elo Ranking9 (Rating: 1995)
Tour level titles11

Verdict

Given the clear contrast in form and momentum, Jodar looks the better side in this matchup. Backing Jodar to win and Jodar to win in straight sets makes sense here.

Best Bet1: Rafael Jodar Match Winner @-104.17 at Stake.com - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Jodar 2-0 Correct Score @204.00 at Stake.com - 2 Units
Rafael Jodar
Match Winner
@-104.17 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet at Stake.com
Jodar 2-0
Correct Score
@204.00 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet at Stake.com

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