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Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Betting Picks & Live Stream – Upset Potential Builds Around Basilashvili at ATP Rome
- Basilashvili is in top form after big Rome wins, despite a tough season
- Rublev regains momentum but leads their head-to-head just 4-3
- Value in backing Basilashvili as an underdog for at least a set or handicap
Nikoloz Basilashvili plays a forehand against Brandon Nakashima in Rome
(credit: Getty)
Nikoloz Basilashvili appears to be rediscovering his best level after a long period of struggles, playing with far more intent, confidence, and fighting spirit. When he performs at this level, he is capable of challenging anyone on tour, and he already owns a top-10 win over Ben Shelton during this campaign.
Masters Experience Shapes Clash
- Andrey Rublev is 5–5 in clay Masters Round-of-16 matches.
- He holds a 13–1 record vs outside Top 100 players in the last 12 months.
- Nikoloz Basilashvili has a 13–1 record in Masters Round-of-16 matches.
- He holds a 3–16 record vs Top 20 players in Masters events.
HTH - Andrey Rublev leads 4-3
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Montpellier | Indoor | QF | Rublev | 5-2 ret. |
| 2022 | Halle | Grass | 1R | Basilashvili | 7-6(1), 6-4 |
| 2021 | Halle | Grass | SF | Rublev | 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 2020 | Rotterdam | Indoor | 1R | Rublev | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 2019 | Cincinnati | Hard | 1R | Rublev | 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 |
| 2019 | Hamburg | Clay | F | Basilashvili | 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 2019 | Doha | Hard | R16 | Basilashvili | 6-3, 6-4 |
Rublev Rediscovering His Best Level
Andrey Rublev advanced to the fourth round in Rome after defeating Miomir Kecmanovic and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in back-to-back matches with identical 6-4, 6-4 scorelines. He dropped serve once in each match and broke his opponents three times both times.
The Russian will be relieved with these results after entering Rome in poor form. He had failed to record multiple wins in four of his previous five tournaments, including opening-round exits in Indian Wells, Miami, and Madrid.
Despite the recent slump, Rublev enjoyed a strong start to the season with semifinal runs in Hong Kong, Doha, and Dubai, along with a third-round appearance at the Australian Open. He is now looking to rediscover that level in Rome.
The 28-year-old owns a 15-13 record in Masters round-of-16 matches and has won seven of his last nine at this stage. On clay, his record stands at 5-5.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Russia |
| Age | 28 (20 October 1997) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 14 |
| Career High | 5 (13 September 2021) |
| Elo Ranking | 27 (Rating: 1888) |
| Tour level titles | 17 |
Basilashvili Turns Back The Clock In Rome
Nikoloz Basilashvili continued his impressive clay-court momentum in Rome by defeating two highly ranked American opponents back-to-back. He beat Ben Shelton 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 before overcoming Brandon Nakashima 7-6, 6-4 to reach the fourth round.
Before this week, the 34-year-old had not won a main draw match at Masters level since 2023 and had not recorded multiple wins in the category since Indian Wells 2021, where he reached the final, still the best Masters result of his career.
Basilashvili arrived in Rome struggling badly for form, with only two main draw wins across 15 tournaments this season. He also had not achieved consecutive main draw victories since September last year.
However, the Georgian has completely turned things around in Rome, winning five matches including qualifying to reach the round of 16 for the second time in his career at the tournament after 2019. He now heads into this stage with a 1-6 career record in Masters round-of-16 matches.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Georgia |
| Age | 34 (23 February 1992) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | 117 |
| Career High | 16 (27 May 2019) |
| Elo Ranking | 147 (Rating: 1634) |
| Tour level titles | 5 |
Verdict
With the form and confidence he currently carries, Basilashvili looks dangerous at underdog odds once again. Backing him to win the match, win at least a set, and cover the +3.5 games handicap all look appealing in this spot.
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Match Winner
@262.00 - 1 Unit
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Basilashvili +1.5
Handicap Sets
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Basilashvili +3.5
Handicap Games
@105.00 - 2 Units
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