Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Betting Picks & Live Stream – Jodar to Continue His Rise at ATP Rome

james-smith
10 May 2026
James Smith 10 May 2026
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  • Rafael Jodar is in top form, winning 13/15 clay matches & climbing to No. 34
  • Matteo Arnaldi has improved recently but still trails Jodar’s level
  • Jodar favored to win comfortably in straight sets at the Rome Masters
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar celebrates during his single match against Nuno Borges in Rome (credit: Getty)
Matteo Arnaldi is slowly getting back into form after the fitness problems that disrupted his momentum earlier this season. However, he still appears some way short of the level currently being produced by Rafael Jodar, who is in red-hot form and riding a strong winning streak.

Jodar Continues Impressive Rise

  • Matteo Arnaldi is 3–5 in Masters third rounds. 
  • He lost six of his last eight matches vs Top 50 players. 
  • Rafael Jodar won 13 of his 15 clay matches this year. 
  • He has a 1–1 record in Masters third rounds.

HTH

This will be their first meeting.

Arnaldi Finds Form At Perfect Time

Matteo Arnaldi moved into the third round in Rome after back-to-back three-set victories over Jaume Munar and Alex de Minaur. It is his best result in five appearances at the tournament. 

The Italian endured a difficult stretch earlier this season, failing to win a main draw match in his first eight events. A retirement in Brisbane and several early exits pushed him outside the top 100 rankings. 

However, Arnaldi has shown strong improvement in recent weeks and is currently riding a seven-match winning streak after lifting the title in Cagliari. He now looks to continue building momentum in Rome.

CategoryDetails
NationalityItaly
Age25 (22 February 2001)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking106
Career High29 (12 August 2024)
Elo Ranking83 (Rating: 1732)
Tour level titles0

Jodar Carrying Huge Clay Momentum

Rafael Jodar opened his Rome Masters campaign with a 7-6, 6-4 victory over Nuno Borges. He fired 11 aces and saved seven of the eight break points he faced during the match. 

The 19-year-old has continued his rapid rise on tour this season. He made his tour-level main draw debut at the Australian Open earlier this year and recorded his first back-to-back wins on tour in Miami by reaching the third round. 

Jodar elevated his level even further once the clay season began. He captured the title in Marrakech in his first tour-level clay event and then followed it with consecutive semifinal runs in Barcelona and Madrid. 

Those impressive results helped the Spaniard climb from outside the top 150 to a career-high ranking of No. 34. He now arrives in Rome full of momentum and confidence.

CategoryDetails
NationalitySpain
Age19 (17 September 2006)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking34
Career High34 (04 May 2026)
Elo Ranking10 (Rating: 1980)
Tour level titles1

Verdict

Jodar looks well positioned to control this matchup from the start. Backing Jodar to win in straight sets and cover the -3.5 games handicap both line up with the current gap in form between these two players.

Best Bet1: Jodar 2-0 Correct Score @-120.48 at Stake.com - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Jodar -3.5 Handicap Games @-161.29 at Stake.com - 2 Units
Jodar 2-0
Correct Score
@-120.48 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet at Stake.com
Jodar -3.5
Handicap Games
@-161.29 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet at Stake.com

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