Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Betting Picks & Live Stream – Aliassime to Power Through at ATP Rome

james-smith
09 May 2026
James Smith 09 May 2026
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  • Both players have struggled for consistency this season
  • Navone has never beaten a Top 10 player and has weak Masters results
  • Auger-Aliassime is favored to win, likely in straight sets
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix Auger-Aliassime returns the ball to Alexander Blockx in Madrid (credit: Getty)
Felix Auger-Aliassime is not always the most reliable player to trust, given his tendency for slow starts and occasional off days. However, Mariano Navone has also struggled to maintain a high level consistently outside a few strong stretches, which makes this a favorable setup for Auger-Aliassime.

Top-10 Barrier Challenges Navone

  • Felix Auger-Aliassime is 3–3 in Rome opening rounds. 
  • He lost six of his last 11 clay matches vs outside Top 20 players. 
  • Mariano Navone is yet to win consecutive Masters matches. 
  • He has a 0–5 record vs Top 10 players.

HTH - Mariano Navone leads 1-0

YearEventSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
2025MunichClay1RNavone2-6, 6-4, 7-6(3)

Auger Aliassime Looks To Bounce Back

Felix Auger-Aliassime is coming off a disappointing third-round loss to rising youngster Alexander Blockx in Madrid. Before that, he reached the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo, where he lost to Jannik Sinner in straight sets. 

The Canadian carried his strong form from last season into 2026 with impressive early results. He won the title in Montpellier, finished runner-up in Rotterdam, reached the semifinals in Dubai, and made the fourth round in Indian Wells. 

Auger-Aliassime is now searching for a deeper clay-court run to build confidence on the surface. Last year, he played six clay events and, apart from a semifinal in Hamburg, lost in the opening round in the other five tournaments. 

The world No. 5 has played the Italian Open six times and cleared the opening round in three appearances. His best result came in 2022 when he reached the quarterfinals.

CategoryDetails
NationalityCanada
Age25 (8 August 2000)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking5
Career High5 (17 November 2025)
Elo Ranking7 (Rating: 1985)
Tour level titles9
Mariano Navone advanced to the second round in Rome with a 6-4, 6-2 win over Denis Shapovalov. Despite losing serve twice, he controlled most of the match from start to finish. 

The Argentine arrived in Rome with disappointing form overall. Apart from his title run in Bucharest, he failed to win multiple matches in any of his other 10 tour-level events this season. 

Navone has now cleared the opening round at Masters events six times in his career. However, he has lost in the following round on all six occasions, including earlier this year in Miami and Madrid.

CategoryDetails
NationalityArgentina
Age25 (27 February 2001)
PlaysRight-handed
World Ranking44
Career High29 (10 June 2024)
Elo Ranking62 (Rating: 1773)
Tour level titles1

Verdict

This looks like a good opportunity for Auger-Aliassime to produce a performance closer to his true level. Backing him to win and to do it in straight sets both fit the expected flow of this matchup.

Best Bet1: Felix Auger-Aliassime Match Winner @-192.31 at Stake.com - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Aliassime 2-0 Correct Score @126.00 at Stake.com - 2 Units
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Match Winner
@-192.31 - 3 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet at Stake.com
Aliassime 2-0
Correct Score
@126.00 - 2 Units
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.

Bet at Stake.com

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